Topline
Former President Donald Trump has lost his swing state lead since Vice President Kamala Harris joined the race, according to a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll that found Trump ahead in just two of seven battlegrounds that will decide the election.
US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the American Federation of Teachers’ … [+]
Key Facts
Michigan: Harris leads here by 11 points, 53% to 42%, according to an online Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted July 24-28, while the two are tied at 49% in a Fox News poll conducted July 22-24, and Trump leads 46%-45% with 9% of voters undecided in a July 22-23 Emerson College survey
Pennsylvania: Trump leads by four, 50% to 46%, in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, is tied with Harris at 49% in the Fox News poll and leads by two (48% to 46%) in the Emerson survey.
Wisconsin: Harris would beat Trump here by two points, 49% to 47%, according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, while Trump leads Harris by one point here in the Fox News poll, and they are tied at 47%, with 5% undecided, in the Emerson poll.
Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll at 47%, while Trump is up by two points in the state (48% to 46%), with 7% undecided, in the Emerson poll.
Arizona: Harris leads by two in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, 49% to 47%, but is down by five points (49% to 44%), with 7% of voters undecided, in the Emerson poll.
North Carolina: Trump would win the state by two points, 48% to 46%, according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, a decline in Trump’s 5.7-point lead here over Biden, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.
Nevada: Harris leads by two points, 47% to 45%, in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll; Trump led Biden here by 5.6 points, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.
Big Number
1. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by (48% to 47%) in the seven battleground states overall, according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. Biden trailed Trump by two points in the seven states in the groups’ online poll taken July 1-5, after the debate, but before Biden dropped out. Bloomberg’s survey looked at Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
Tangent
National polls taken since Biden dropped out of the race show Harris cutting into Trump’s lead over Biden, though Trump still leads by two points overall, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.
What To Watch For
Several names on Harris’ reported shortlist for vice president could help her shore up votes in the crucial swing states. Voters are partial to possible contenders who currently represent their states, the Emerson poll found. In Arizona, 42% of Democratic voters prefer their senator, Mark Kelly, 57% of Democrats in Pennsylvania prefer Gov. Josh Shapiro, and 36% of Michigan Democrats surveyed prefer Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has said she wouldn’t accept an offer for the No. 2 spot. None of the possible picks Emerson asked about received more than about 20% support among Democrats in Wisconsin and Georgia, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in addition to Kelly, Shapiro and Whitmer.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The majority of Biden’s delegates have pledged to support her, making it all but certain she officially becomes the Democratic nominee when they vote during the first week of August to formalize the ticket. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)
2022 midterms, 2024 presidential campaign, the January 6 House committee investigation, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, the 2023 State of the Union Address, former President Donald Trump’s federal election interference and classified documents cases and his Manhattan hush money case. Dorn graduated in 2012 from the University of Dayton with a degree in journalism. Prior to joining Forbes, she covered New York City and state politics for the New York Post and City and State magazine. Follow her for updates and analysis on the 2024 presidential race, key Senate and House races and developments in Congress and at the White House.
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