Peter Dutton‘s strategy to convince Australians to vote out a one term Prime Minister is predicated on killing Albo with kindness.
Or, as the Opposition Leader put it recently, the message is the PM is a good bloke – just not up to the top job.
‘It’s obvious to all Australians now, the prime minister may not be a bad person,’ Dutton said.
‘But he’s a shocking prime minister and he can’t make decisions that, ultimately, are in the best interests of our country.’
Liberal Party research has identified that swinging voters by and large like Anthony Albanese.
To be sure, plenty of voters do not – but they already aren’t considering a vote for Labor.
Australia’s compulsory voting system dictates that swinging voters decide elections, hence they inevitably become the focus of major party campaigns.
Internal party focus groups have consistently revealed that many undecided voters – or what you might call traditional swing voters who locked in behind Labor at the 2022 election – think Albo is someone they could imagine having a beer with.
But the good bloke persona – our DJ’ing PM even has a beer named after him – doesn’t guarantee voters think he’s a competent leader capable of addressing the challenges of now.
Peter Dutton has changed his tune about Anthony Albanese recently (above, with fiance Jodie watching the Rabbitohs), saying he ‘may not be a bad person but he’s a shocking Prime Minister’
‘DJ Albo’ was the right man to sweep unpopular Scott Morrison out of office… but for a second term majority, the government needs the PM to convince voters he is competent
In fact research by both parties shows that swinging voters have serious concerns about Albo’s capacity to see the country through these difficult economic times.
Such question marks over the PM’s abilities are exacerbated by the reality that Labor usually trails the Coalition on the all important ‘economic management’ criteria.
Fairly or not, this has been the case for decades now.
It didn’t matter at the last election because Australians wanted to get rid of Scott Morrison. Albo’s good bloke persona was a sharp contrast to how many voters felt about Morrison.
At that time it was enough.
What the major parties are trying to evaluate now is whether it’s still enough to eke out a second win.
The research is also assessing whether the good bloke persona can trounce Peter Dutton the same way it did with Morrison.
Unlike Morrison, Dutton is a good bloke. Anyone who properly gets to know him can attest to that.
It’s one reason why he’s managed to successfully retain his marginal Brisbane electorate despite redistributions favouring Labor.
But nationally, good bloke or not, Dutton doesn’t have the same reputation the way Albo does.
Given that there is a cost of living crisis, inflation is on the rise and we are all struggling under a per capita recession, Labor may need more than a good bloke boss.
It needs voters to transition from just seeing Albo as likeable to competent. If it can’t generate that shift in perceptions it will need to rely on a negative campaign painting Dutton as another unlikable: Morrison 2.0.
Albo – like Bob Hawke – already has a beer named after him. Hammering home the argument that Albo won’t be able to help voters lead better lives is the Coalition’s only hope
For the Liberals’ part, they have clearly accepted that the like ability of Albo won’t change before polling day. Not amongst swinging voters.
Dutton’s comments that Albo ‘may not be a bad person, but he’s a shocking prime minister’ are almost word-for-word drawn from Liberal Party focus groups.
They are points raised by swinging voters worried that Albo won’t be able to help them lead better lives.
Hammering that point home between now and the next election is the Coalition’s only hope of doing what hasn’t been done since 1931: a first term opposition defeating a first term government.
It is a degree of difficulty made even harder when the Prime Minister is likeable.
Australians want to give their governments a second chance, a sentiment more likely to impact voting patterns if the PM is perceived likeable.
Which suggests that Albo is well and truly in the box seat to hang on at the next election, even if Labor loses its majority and must govern in minority after a close result.
Unless the Coalition can convince enough swinging voters that, likeable or not, re-electing Albo will cause economic grief that can be avoided if they hold their collective noses and vote to change the government.
