MIAMI – Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of the Florida coast as a disturbance, now designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, takes aim at the Sunshine State.
The storm system, which the National Hurricane Center forecasts will likely eventually become Tropical Storm Debby, threatens the state with torrential rain, strong winds and even a potential storm surge.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from near Cape Coral through the Everglades.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys and for communities around Tampa, Sarasota and the state’s Big Bend region.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additionally, a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River. This includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
A majority of the Sunshine State remains under a state of emergency on Friday as officials urge residents to prepare now. The National Hurricane Center is now highly confident that the disturbance will develop into at least a tropical depression – if not a tropical storm – by the end of this weekend.
If the potential cyclone reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Debby. However, named or not, the system is promising several inches of rain for Florida, especially the Gulf Coast.
The disturbance’s chances of developing continue to increase as it moves closer to the Straits of Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
“That’s the opportunity for development,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “And there is growing confidence that we will likely get a storm out of this. Where it gets fuzzy is how strong does this system get?”
Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Four?
According to the NHC, the tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic on Friday morning.
The tropical wave is expected to emerge over the Straits of Florida on Saturday, the NHC notes.
“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula,” the agency said.
Florida begins to prepare as flood threat increases
The FOX Forecast Center said showers and thunderstorms are already tearing off from the center of the tropical disturbance and impacting southern portions of Florida on Friday.
As the storm nears, rainfall will increase and spread from south to north across much of Florida through the weekend. Overall rainfall totals of 4-8 inches with maximum totals up to 12 inches are expected for portions of Florida and eventually up the southeastern U.S. coast.
Those totals could bring both urban flooding and isolated river flooding, the NHC said.
Tropical storm-force winds are expected in the warned areas across southwestern Florida late Saturday into Saturday night, moving up the west coast of Florida into Sunday.
Storm surge of 1-4 feet is possible along portions of Florida’s west coast, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, the NHC warned.
A Flood Watch is in effect for all of South Florida, including Miami, effective through Sunday evening.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been flying along Cuba’s northern coast to determine the strength of the disturbance, but due to international restrictions, have been limited in the scope of their operations.
Sand bag stations readied in Florida
In Seminole County, as well as other communities around the state, officials are handing out free sand bags for residents to prepare for potential flooding.
“Every resident can take 15 bags per household,” FOX35’s Marley Capper told FOX Weather from Seminole County. “That is more than in the past, so they really want to make sure residents are prepped and ready.”
The FOX Forecast Center said there is growing confidence about what’s going to happen over the next 24 hours as the system moves into the Florida Straits and then into the eastern Gulf.
The next unclear aspect is the storm’s destination after Sunday and leading into Monday.
“We have this trough sitting to the north. Does it sink south enough to pick it up?” Merwin said. “Unfortunately, we also have a ridge of high pressure that’s baking the U.S. If that nudges in too fast, it can stall out the system. And then we could have an increase in the rain forecast and flooding potential for the state of Florida, even Georgia and South Carolina.”
