A forecaster known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential elections gave his take on how JD Vance could sway the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Professor Allan Lichtman of American University has accurately called the winner of nearly every presidential election since President Reagan’s reelection in 1984.
Earlier this week, after updating his complicated prediction model to reflect President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris become the presumptive Democratic nominee, he said Harris was on course for victory.
On his YouTube channel Friday, Lichtman believes part of the reason for Harris’ advantage is that Vance would be a ‘horror show’ if Trump was incapacitated and Vance had to serve as president.
‘I don’t think the VP pick turns the election but a VP pick is incredibly important. That’s why JD Vance was such a disastrous pick; he would be a horror show as president.’
He added that the point to picking a running mate is having someone to serve if the president dies or resigns, which has happened on nine occasions in US history.
A forecaster known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential elections gave his take on how JD Vance could sway the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Lichtman told Newsweek that Vance presents a problem in that Trump comes off as more of a moderate than the Ohio Senator.
‘In some ways, his views are even more extreme than those of Donald Trump. For example, on aid to Ukraine or wanting a national prohibition on abortion with no exception for rape, incest, or health of the mother. And Vance has become a lightning rod for criticism,’ he said.
Harris, who is slated to announce her pick for VP on Monday, has seen a boost in the polls since announcing her intention to run.
Based on Lichtman’s model which includes thirteen factors, or ‘keys’ as he calls them, Harris is currently on course for victory with less than 100 days to go before Election Day.
Lichtman’s model measures factors against the party currently in the White House, which at this time is the Democrats.
He said he will make his official prediction for the election next month, but Harris has a majority of his keys leaning in her favor to win.
‘I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention,’ Lichtman wrote on X. ‘See my assessment below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW.’
The factors giving Harris the advantage include that she did not face a primary challenger, there has been little threat from third party candidates so far, and the economy is strong in the short and long term.
Professor Allen Lichtman believes Kamala Harris is on track to win the election this November against Donald Trump despite the shake-up at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket
With the switch to Harris, the White House also hasn’t made a major policy change and the vice president is not facing a scandal or major social unrest.
Lichtman noted that with the transition from Biden to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, the Democrats have lost one advantage: the incumbency factor.
With Harris and Trump set to face off, the professor views this race is essentially open now.
But he noted Democrats were able to prevent some further fallout with its shakeup with the party overwhelmingly rallying behind Harris rather than kicking off a chaotic open primary or having other presidential hopefuls jumping into the race at this late stage.
‘I have not made a final prediction. I’ve said I will make it after the Democratic convention,’ Lichtman told C-SPAN.
‘But I have said for months, and I continue to say a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose,’ he added. ‘That could happen, but a lot would have to change.’
Lichtman also said the new energy injected into the Harris campaign could have a positive effect on several keys for her including less people voting for third party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and it could further stall social unrest.
‘It has a mixed result, Biden’s dropping out, and the presumptive nomination of Harris,’ he said. ‘But it doesn’t fundamentally change my assessment that a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.’
President Biden speaking on July 29, 2024. Professor Lichtman said the president dropping out of the race on July 21 has not fundamentally changed his forecast on who will win the November election as of now
Lichtman’s forecast comes as polls show the presidential race remains extremely close with Harris at the top of the ticket.
An average of the latest polls shows Trump up less than two points, according to Real Clear Politics.
When it comes to the polls out of key battleground states, there is also a tight race between Trump and Harris now that Biden is off the Democratic ticket.
But the latest polling does show there has been a jump in enthusiasm among Democrats as Lichtman noted. Harris’ approval since becoming the presumptive presidential nominee has also jumped in recent days.
