Polling “Nostradamus” Allan Lichtman has identified four possible weak spots in Vice President Kamala Harris‘ bid for the White House.
The potential hurdles are based on the historian’s election prediction model, known as “The Keys to the White House,” which Lichtman has used to successfully predict the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections. His track record earned him his nickname, after the French reputed seer of the 1500s.
The model is made up of 13 true/false statements, or “keys.” If six or more of them are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.
Harris is “down three keys at the moment,” Lichtman told Newsweek.
“The four keys I haven’t definitively called yet are third party, social unrest, foreign/military failure, and foreign/military success. It is possible, but not likely, that three of those four could fall.”
The third party “key” remains open as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains in the race, recently stating he was “in it to win it.”
Prominent international conflicts the U.S. finds itself entangled in are likely to be a detriment to Harris’ reelection chances, per Lichtman’s system. The war in Ukraine continues to drag on and America’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war spawned waves of protests across the country.
Two of the thirteen “keys” involve perceived foreign military successes or failures.
“I think it’s leaning false and [am] likely to decide it false ultimately,” Lichtman said.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email.
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman said he is likely to issue a formal prediction around the time of the Democratic National Convention later in August.
“I’ve not made a final prediction. I want to make that crystal clear because I’m often misinterpreted that way. I haven’t predicted Harris to win or lose. I will make that prediction right after, likely, the Democratic Convention, but three of the four uncalled keys would have to fall,” the professor said.
“That’s why I’ve been saying a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose – same thing I was saying for Joe Biden before this dramatic shift, which only affected one key, the incumbency key.”
Harris became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after President Joe Biden (who Lichtman claimed is a firm believer in his “13 Keys” model) announced he was withdrawing from the race last month.
“Somehow, after shamelessly trashing their incumbent president and seemingly moving to a big party brawl to replace him, somehow the Democrats found a spine and a brain and united behind Harris to avoid losing a second key on my system, the internal party contest key,” said Lichtman.
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