Vice President Kamala Harris fares better against former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House among likely New York voters than President Biden did, a new survey released Tuesday reveals.
Harris leads Trump in the Empire State 53% to 39% — a 14 percentage point lead, the Siena College Poll finds.
It’s the first survey of a head-to-head matchup between Harris and the GOP presidential nominee in New York since the vice president replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket after the unpopular 81-year-old incumbent announced he would not seek re-election.
A Siena poll released in late June found Biden leading Trump by just 8 points, 47% to 39%.
In a six-way election horse race, Harris leads Trump 49% to 37%, with 7% for Robert Kennedy Jr. and 4% for the other three minor party candidates.
“The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll. The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horse race,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
According to the poll, Harris has rallied the base of the Democratic Party.
She outperforms Biden among women and black voters and was running even with Trump in the battleground suburbs and upstate — better news for Democrats running in competitive House races.
Harris is backed by 86% of Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June.
Harris captured 81% support from black voters to 11% for Trump, up from 59% for Biden and 29% for Trump in June.
Registered independent voters support Trump over Harris 47% to 40%. But Trump led Biden among non-party affiliated voters 45% to 28%, so Harris cut into Trump’s lead by more than half among indies.
Here’s the latest on Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign:
- Kamala Harris launches first ad showing Trump mug shot
- Trump campaign not convinced Kamala Harris will be Democratic nominee – won’t finalize debate until she is
- Kamala Harris’ Silicon Valley allies set to raise $100M as they pitch wealthy donors: report
- Kamala Harris manager says 2024 race will be ‘hard fought’ and won in ‘battlegrounds’
- Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker clarifies if he’s being vetted as Kamala Harris’ running mate
Harris leads with women by a yawning 34 points — 64% to 30% for Trump, nearly doubling the gender gap.
Biden led Trump among women 51% to 33%.
“The gender gap has widened with Harris replacing Biden,” Greenberg said.
Trump led among men — 49% to 43% for Harris, nearly the same as the 46% to 42% advantage the former GOP president had over Biden.
The former president also showed strength with two traditionally Democratic leaning voters — Jews and Hispanics. He split the Jewish vote with Harris (50% to 49%) and Latinos (47% to 48%).
“Interestingly, it wasn’t young voters that moved the needle [for Harris]. Among voters under 35, Harris leads 49-34%, down a little from the 51-32% lead Biden had in June. Harris’ big pickup was among voters 35-54, who favor her 54-40%, after backing Trump 44-41% over Biden in June,” Siena’s Greenberg said.
Harris romps in heavily Democratic New York City, 67% to 25% for Trump.
More important, Harris also is running even with Trump in the suburbs 47% to 47%
That’s a plus for Democrats, when considering Trump trounced Biden by 13 percentage points in the suburbs in Siena College’s June survey.
Many of the key battleground congressional races are in the suburbs — Long Island and Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Orange counties.
The match-up was also nearly even upstate, with 47% of voters backing Harris and 45% for Trump.
“It’s better news for Democrats running in a marginal district,” Greenberg said.
For House races, 47% of suburban voters support a Democratic candidate, while 44% a Republican — too close to call.
Similarly, 44% of upstaters back a Democrat for Congress and 42% a Republican, a dead heat.
Fifty three percent of voters in blue-leaning New York had a favorable view of Harris, compared to 43% who didn’t.
In contrast, 59% of respondents had an unfavorable view of native New Yorker Trump, while 39% had a favorable opinion.
Most voters said this presidential race is the most important of their lifetime — 79% of Democrats, 77% of Republicans and 65% of independents.
In another important race, incumbent Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who is running for a third full, six-year term, leads Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone, a retired NYPD detective by 23 points — 56% to 33%.
“With only 13 weeks until election day, Gillibrand is in a strong position to win her fourth election to the United States Senate,” Greenberg said.
She won reelection in 2018 with a 34-point victory over her then little known Republican opponent.
The survey found that 85% of voters did not know enough about Sapraicone to have an opinion, while 27% had no opinion of Gillibrand, who’s been in office for 15 years.
This Siena College Poll was conducted from July 28 through August 1 among 1,199 likely voters, via smart phones and landlines. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
