Vice President Kamala Harris has a commanding lead nationally over former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll — as Republicans accuse Harris of avoiding media interviews for more than two weeks to avoid stumbling and potentially ending her “honeymoon” period as the Democratic candidate.
Harris would take 50% of the vote to Trump’s 42% among likely voters if third-party candidates are options, Marquette Law School found in a poll conducted July 24-Aug. 1, shortly after President Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 and endorsed Harris as his successor.
Although the poll’s margin is an outlier compared to other recent surveys, it reflects the trend toward Harris, 59, and away from Trump, 78 — as other indicators hint at a surge of enthusiasm among Democrats, including massive rallies rivaling the size of Trump’s and a tidal wave of fundraising.
The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls had Trump leading Biden, 81, throughout 2024 — with the Republican’s lead topping out at 3.4 percentage points on July 7 as Democrats mutinied against Biden over concerns about his mental acuity and holding after Trump was shot at a rally on July 13.
Harris now leads by an average of .8% nationally, according to the polling aggregation.
Republicans are favored in the Electoral College, meaning that a slim popular-vote margin by the Democratic nominee actually can still yield a Trump victory. In 2016, he won the White House through narrow margins in Midwest swing states, despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 points to Hillary Clinton.
But swing-state polls also indicate a much more competitive race than when Trump faced Biden.
The Cook Political Report on Thursday recategorized Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from leaning toward Trump to “toss-ups.”
The polling woes coincide with Harris’ pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which has further excited Democrats, though Republicans are digging into his past and already have confronted alleged false claims about his military career.
The new Marquette poll was conducted before Harris announced Walz as her partner on the ticket.
Here is the latest on VP pick Tim Walz’s time in the military
- National Guard vet claims Walz went above him to secure retirement: ‘He knew I would have told him, “Suck it up”’
- Tim Walz falsely claimed he carried weapons ‘in war’ in resurfaced clip: ‘Absolutely false’
- Tim Walz left National Guard battalion ‘hanging,’ ‘slithered out the door’ before Iraq deployment: vets
- Tim Walz a ‘coward’ and ‘traitor’ for retiring from military before Iraq, says Guardsman who replaced VP pick
The Harris-Walz campaign raised a whopping $36 million in the 24 hours after Walz was announced Tuesday — before the pair spoke to rallies topping 10,000 attendees in Philadelphia that night and similarly sized rallies in western Wisconsin and Detroit on Wednesday.
Harris’ campaign pulled in $310 million across its supporting committees in July — more than doubling Trump’s $138.7 million that month.
Trump allies are hoping that Harris’ surge will be momentary ahead of the Nov. 5 election — noting that she also surged in her 2020 presidential primary campaign before flaming out before the first state nominating contests.
Harris has drawn negative coverage for awkward public engagements and circular statements mocked as “word salads” throughout her nearly four-year vice presidency — but since July 21 has stunned critics, including fellow Democrats, by delivering a series of well-received speeches and avoiding major stumbles.
Trump running mate Sen. JD Vance of Ohio on Wednesday highlighted the cautious nature of Harris’ campaign by approaching Air Force Two on the tarmac of an airport in Eau Claire, Wis., and telling reporters: “This is a person who has to answer questions from the media and it’s disgraceful that she runs from you guys, and it’s also insulting to the American people.”
Trump wrote on social media Thursday: “Kamala refuses to do interviews because her team realizes she is unable to answer questions, much like Biden was not able to answer questions, but for different reasons.”
“He is just plain ‘shot,’ and she is just plain ‘Incompetent,’” Trump wrote.
“Her policies of Open Borders, No Fracking or Drilling for Oil in any Way, Shape or Form, Transgender ‘anything,’ Anti Israel but gross incompetence toward getting anything done for the Palestinians, No Clue on Inflation, or the Economy, Unlimited Money to fight Foreign Wars, and so much more, are CATASTROPHIC.”
Harris’ most recent sit-down press interview was on June 24 with MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” to discuss the second anniversary of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Three days later, she abruptly appeared on CNN to defend Biden’s catastrophic performance in that night’s debate against Trump, which set in motion the end of Biden’s career.
She has, however, answered some shouted questions and has given regular off-the-record gaggles to reporters on Air Force Two — replying to press questions about a range of topics — but her staff have not allowed her answers to be reported.
Those encounters are widely understood as a way for Harris to build relationships with leading reporters and to carefully nudge the direction of their reporting — while also avoiding accountability for answers that the public may deem inauthentic, dishonest or evasive.
