Wisconsin was decided by just 20,000 votes in 2020, remains deeply divided politically and is expected once again to be one of the most important states in this fall’s presidential matchup between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
That’s why MSNBC political analyst Elise Jordan traveled to the state to host four recent focus groups with Wisconsin voters, digging into what matters to voters on the ground, how they see the candidates and what might move people to change their minds in the final months of the 2024 campaign.
Here’s a look at what voters had to say as part of four different groups: Trump loyalists, center-right voters conflicted about Trump, young progressives and traditional Democrats.
Harris swap concerns some Trump voters, but they don’t believe she can win
The group of seven Trump-supporting women made clear why they want to see the former president return to office — they’re deeply critical of President Joe Biden’s administration and believe Trump will be able to “correct the damage that’s been done the last four years,” in the words of Tara, a 47-year-old woman.
Issues like the border and the economy loom large with these voters, who blame Biden for what they see as unchecked illegal immigration and an economy that doesn’t work for everyday Americans. And they see Trump’s legal woes as overblown by his opponents.
“I have to work two jobs right now to afford groceries. What sickens me, am I allowed to say that? Biden doesn’t know the price of hamburger, but I bet you any one of us on this panel do[es],” Kelly, a 60-year-old woman, said.
“When Trump was still in office, I could afford gas, I could fill up my new Kia, my interest rates to buy a new car have changed. So, we’ve got to do something,” she continued.
“It’s about making our country better, back to where it used to be, a time where families could go on vacation and could do this and do that. I love that Trump loves the American people, and he does not need a presidency or to be shot at,” said Amy, a 49-year-old woman, adding: “Why would you not want to give that guy your vote?”
The Trump loyalists all agreed that Harris couldn’t win — either arguing that she won’t win the presidency because they believe people won’t back her, or echoing unfounded theories similar to the false claims that Trump won the 2020 election.
But a group of these women did admit that the decision by Democrats to swap out Biden for Harris does concern them.
“Everybody’s excited about her, and that scares me,” Mary, a 76-year-old woman, said. “Trump has to reconfigure where he’s going, and how they’re going to outsmart her.”
And Kelly worried that “Trump’s worst side could come back out.”
Right-leaning swing voters are frustrated with the issues and the candidates, even after Biden’s dropout
The issue set among the group of five Republican-leaning Wisconsin swing voters is no surprise — including the economy, the border, foreign affairs and abortion rights. But the conversation revealed how the voters, even those who believe they’ve made up their mind, are concerned about their choices ahead of the fall.
Three of the five voters say they’re currently supporting Trump. But two others remain undecided.
“My concern about Trump is him making too aggressive of choices and us not being able to recover from it. I appreciate that he is willing to, if a bomb is dropped on our doorstep, he is out the door as fast as it hit us. But that does make me nervous because, did we vet everything that’s going to happen?” said Alyssa, a 29-year old woman who is still undecided on how she’s voting this fall.
“My concern about Harris is: A bomb is dropped on our doorstep, it’s going to be six months before we move and now we’re viewed as weak,” Alyssa added.
Dawn, who plans to vote for Trump, said she’s concerned that Harris wasn’t forthcoming about Biden’s fitness for office and that Trump is “too loud.”
Karen, a 70-year-old undecided voter, is concerned about what she already knows about Trump but is also concerned about the unknowns around Harris.
“I don’t think we can ignore Trump’s convictions, his integrity, his moral character,” Karen said. “I worry about him if he gets retaliation for something that gets him upset, he’s going to retaliate without slowing down, thinking it through. I honestly need to get more information about Kamala because I just don’t know enough about her, so I’m on a wait-and-see.”
Young progressives are pessimistic but happy to see Harris replace Biden
Young voters, especially the progressives on college campuses across the state of Wisconsin, will be a pivotal voting bloc for Democrats this fall. And one thing that’s clear from the conversation with five of these voters is that they’re deeply frustrated.
Describing the state of the world with an expletive, 36-year-old Nicholas criticized a system he believes favors the “elite, wealthy people” over the middle class.
“Although I’ve voted the lesser of two evils in every election, because I think that’s really the only option we have for self-defense as a middle class, both parties are definitely influenced by the financial interests, the military industrial complex, the energy companies, you name it,” he said.
That similar concern about the direction of the country and the middle class is one reason why Joe, 35, believes Trump’s message is appealing to disaffected people.
“Trump is someone who has played into people’s legitimate concerns about how the economy is going, about how we have less and less agency when it comes to interacting with government, corporations, our jobs. I don’t think what he is proposing would work to actually address that, but it makes people feel good,” he added.
These voters also raised concerns about America’s posture in Israel’s war against Hamas, a running theme in the last few months that has raised questions about whether Democrats could pay a political price with base voters who are critical of Biden’s handling of the war.
The group was broadly supportive of Biden’s decision not to seek another term, which elevated Harris, even though some lamented that it would have been better for the country and the party if he made the decision earlier.
Myra, a 39-year-old who said she feels more “activated” by the shift to Harris, raised frustration that the decision on whom to nominate was taken out of the hands of the primary voters.
“It’s supposed to be a process, we’re supposed to be part of it. So that part I don’t like on principle. That being said, she’s the vice president and we’re late in the game, and we would have elected her into office by electing Biden,” she said.
“What she brings is fresh, and you might not know a lot about her, but that might be a good thing,” Myra continued. “She was in office for four years, so she might not have the network but she knows the network, she knows who the players are. She might not have been at all the same meetings as Biden, but she’s gonna be included in briefs, she’s gonna know where all the chickens are. That’s powerful.”
Traditional Democrats think Biden had to go
That support for Biden hanging up his political spikes extended to the group of traditional Democrats too. The broad sentiment of those focus group participants was that while Biden may have been held to a different standard than Trump is, the decision to step aside was a wise one.
Brett, 41, called Biden’s June 27 debate performance “terrible,” arguing that not being able to take advantage of the “ripe” opportunity Trump presented during the debate made him wonder if Biden would be up to being president in the future.
“I’m really happy he’s made the right decision,” he said. “This is the best for our country.”
That said, many of the Democrats panned the media and Republicans for what they saw as unfair treatment of both Trump and Biden.
“All the attention was on his stumbling and bumbling, which I understand. But Trump was sitting there and everything that came out of his mouth was a lie,” said 77-year-old Richard.
Jolenta, 61, called the treatment of Biden after the debate “disgusting,” accusing the media of falling in line behind Trump because they believed he would win. And she said she only felt “OK” with his decision to step down because of the political reality, as she still believed Biden had strong values and could do the job of being president.
“Whatever gaffes he made in the debate really didn’t surprise me because he’s had a stutter his whole life, he’s always been gaffe-prone,” she said.
But Jolenta added that Biden “wasn’t punching back, there was so much fodder there he could have just hammered Trump on — all the crimes, the grifting, the crime-ing, all the crazy plans he has for the next administration. And he wasn’t doing that, and that was the only reason I ended up feeling OK about him backing out.”
As to what they believe Harris could do now to differentiate herself from Biden, the Democrats raised the prospect of Harris offering a deeper embrace of protecting reproductive rights, a potential change in the approach to Israel’s war with Hamas, and finding a way to address the fact that despite a “relatively good economy,” some people are hurting. And they all believe that the stakes of the election couldn’t be higher.
“Trump is, in my opinion, the most dangerous person in the world. And he is just a loose cannon and you cannot trust anything that he or his allies would do. And that’s what really scares me, is because he will do anything, say anything to be able to win,” Richard said.
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