Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has now emerged as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election, highlighting her campaign’s momentum as she rapidly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead in the betting markets over the past two weeks.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign momentum appears to have boosted betting odds in her … [+]
Key Facts
Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket predict the Democratic candidate now has a slight edge, with a 49% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 48%.
This is a major shift from just two weeks ago, when the bookmakers believed Trump had a 64% chance compared to Harris’ 29%.
Polymarket also predicts Harris now has a 71% chance of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump’s 27%.
Bookmakers on the New Zealand-based PredictIt give Harris even stronger victory odds of 57 cents per share (roughly equating to a 57% chance) compared to 45 cents per share for Trump.
While Harris jumped ahead of Trump on the PredictIt market at the start of the month, her selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as running mate appears to have boosted her lead from just two points to more than 10.
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News Peg
According to the tracker Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from four separate betting markets, Harris now has a 50.9% chance of winning in November compared to Trump’s 47.1%. This is a massive swing in Harris’ favor, as just two weeks ago it gave the former president a more than 30-point lead over his opponent. Harris’ numbers have been climbing as the Democratic party has coalesced around her as its nominee after President Biden dropped out.
Tangent
The betting market’s sentiments about the vice president’s momentum have also been reflected in recent polling numbers, with the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist survey giving Harris a three-point national lead over Trump, while a Morning Consult poll gave her a four-point lead.
Further Reading
Harris Ties Trump On Election Betting Odds Site For First Time (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Widens Lead In Latest Surveys (Forbes)
Betting Markets Swing Towards Harris Being Democratic Nominee—As Pushback Against Biden Grows (Forbes)
