Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has turned around faltering Democratic numbers in three key states, according to a new New York Times/Siena poll between August 5 and 9, one of the first large surveys to capture likely voter sentiment since Harris officially became the opponent to Donald Trump in the presidential election.
US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the American Federation of Teachers’ … [+]
Key Facts
Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump by 4 points among likely voters and 3 points among registered voters, according to the Times/Siena poll (the margin of error is 4.2 points).
Michigan: Harris also leads Trump here by 4 points among likely voters—but trails Trump by 2 points among registered voters (the margin of error is 4.8 points).
Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump by 4 points among likely voters and 5 points among registered voters in the Times poll (the margin of error is 4.3 points).
Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll at 47%, while Trump is up by two points in the state (48% to 46%), with 7% undecided, in the Emerson poll.
Arizona: Harris leads by two in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, 49% to 47%, but is down by five points (49% to 44%), with 7% of voters undecided, in the Emerson poll.
North Carolina: Trump would win the state by two points, 48% to 46%, according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, a decline in Trump’s 5.7-point lead here over Biden, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.
Nevada: Harris leads by two points, 47% to 45%, in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll; Trump led Biden here by 5.6 points, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.
Big Number
10. That’s the improvement in Harris’s approval rating percentage among likely voters in Pennsylvania in the last month, according to the Times poll.
Tangent
National polls taken since Biden dropped out of the race have shown Harris cutting into Trump’s lead over Biden, and now barely leading overall, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The majority of Biden’s delegates have pledged to support her, making it all but certain she officially becomes the Democratic nominee when they vote during the first week of August to formalize the ticket. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)
2022 midterms, 2024 presidential campaign, the January 6 House committee investigation, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, the 2023 State of the Union Address, former President Donald Trump’s federal election interference and classified documents cases and his Manhattan hush money case. Dorn graduated in 2012 from the University of Dayton with a degree in journalism. Prior to joining Forbes, she covered New York City and state politics for the New York Post and City and State magazine. Follow her for updates and analysis on the 2024 presidential race, key Senate and House races and developments in Congress and at the White House.
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