Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ran as a Democrat before switching to longshot independent hopeful, is seen as a potential spoiler for Democrats and Republicans in November with the ability to siphon votes from both major party candidates.
Kennedy had been taking voters from both Donald Trump and Joe Biden since he launched his campaign last October, but many polls showed he hurt Joe Biden more than Donald Trump in battleground states.
That has notably shifted since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, with several polls now showing Kennedy is affecting Trump’s polling more than Harris.
Harris has pulled ahead in several battleground states, as well as nationally, where before Biden stepped aside, Trump led polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.
On Thursday, Kennedy won a legal battle to appear on the New Jersey ballot. He had been challenged as being an invalid candidate under the state’s “sore loser law” due to switching to an independent after losing the Democratic primary. He faces a similar challenge in New York.
But despite the challenges, he has so far been confirmed on the presidential ballot in 15 states, including in three battleground states: North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada.
Here is how Kennedy affects polling in those three states, and how momentum has changed since Harris took over from Biden.
North Carolina
In June and July, Trump led Biden in every theoretical head-to-head poll by 2 to 7 points. In polls where Kennedy was included as a choice, the independent candidate received 2 to 8 percent of the vote and Trump maintained, and slightly expanded, his lead over Biden, leading every poll by 2 to 9 points.
After July 21, when Biden announced he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris, the polls slightly narrowed, with Trump leading Harris by only 2 to 4 points in a theoretical head-to-head. In polls that included Kennedy, he received 4 to 5 percent of the vote and Harris narrowed Trump’s lead to between 1 and 3 points.
Michigan
In June and July, Trump led in nine of the 10 head-to-head polls against Biden by between 1 and 7 points. Biden led by 5 points in one poll during this period.
When Kennedy was included as a choice in the poll, the independent candidate received 4 to 10 percent of the vote. Trump maintained his lead in 13 of the 15 polls conducted by between 1 and 7 points.
Biden was ahead in the two other multi-candidate polls.
After July 21, when Biden announced he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris, the vice president closed Trump’s polling lead in a theoretical head-to-head. Harris has led in three of the eight polls conducted, Trump has led in three, and two have been ties.
In polls that included Kennedy, Trump received 4 to 10 percent of the vote and the race was a tossup. Harris has led in three of the eight polls conducted, Trump has led in three, and two have been ties.
Nevada
In June and July, Trump led Biden in seven of eight theoretical head-to-head polls by 3 to 10 points. Biden led one poll during this period.
When Kennedy was included as a choice in the poll, the independent candidate received 5 to 12 percent of the vote. Trump solidified his lead over Biden, leading in all 10 polls conducted over this period by between 3 and 10 points.
After July 21, when Biden announced he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris, the vice president closed Trump’s polling lead in a theoretical head-to-head. Harris led in one of the three polls conducted, Trump leading the other two.
In polls that included Kennedy, he received 5 to 7 percent of the vote and the race remained a tossup. Trump has led one multi-candidate poll while the other two have been a tie between Harris and Trump.
The Final Analysis
In all three states, Harris has managed to close the gap with Trump in head-to-head polls, significantly narrowing what were once more substantial leads for the former president.
When Kennedy is included in the polls, he consistently garners a notable percentage of the vote, appearing to draw from both major parties, but the net effect may be more detrimental to Trump now that Harris has stepped into the race.
Kennedy’s candidacy complicates the electoral calculations for both Democrats and Republicans, it appears that his influence has shifted in a way that could make these battleground states even more competitive, potentially benefiting Harris as she narrows Trump’s lead in a three-way race.
