Presidential historian Allan Lichtman argues that Kamala Harris‘s path to the White House is not yet “a foregone conclusion,” as several unresolved issues could still impact the presidential race.
In one of his regular reports on the state of the election on Saturday, Lichtman took aim at the “herd mentality” of the U.S. mainstream media, and its “180 degree” turn on the Democrat’s chances of victory.
“The media that once virtually anointed Donald Trump as the next president is now touting Vice President Harris as overwhelmingly likely to be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said. “The problem with this pack journalism is it misses all the nuances of a presidential campaign and fails to comprehend how presidential elections really work.”
Lichtman urged viewers to focus less on “poll-driven, pundit-driven analysis,” which he compared to “sports talk radio,” and to instead look to his “keys to the White House” method for predicting presidential races.
His model—which has successfully forecast all but one presidential election result since 1984—has seen Lichtman being described as America’s polling “Nostradamus.”
The model consists of 13 true/false statements, referred to as “keys.” If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, that party is expected to win.
According to Lichtman, this shows that, “like Joe Biden, Kamala Harris does have some significant advantages when it comes to the fundamentals that drive presidential elections, but that her election in November is not a foregone conclusion.”
Harris’ selection to replace Biden did lose the “incumbency” key, Lichtman said, but ” Democrats grew a spine and a brain and united around Harris, avoiding the loss of the contest key.”
However, he cautioned that the Democrats have already given up the “party mandate” key, having lost the House to Republicans in the 2022 midterms.
In addition, Lichtman said that Harris fails to secure Democrats the “charisma” key, as she “is not an FDR who has shown she’s capable of converting large numbers of members of the opposition.”
As a result, Lichtman said that the election will come down to four keys.
The first of these is the third party key, and the emergence of a significant alternative to the two main candidates who could carve out votes from their base.
Recent polling from The New York Times showed that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds only five percent of voters’ support, with Harris and Trump at 45 and 43 percent, respectively.
Lichtman has said that for this key to turn false, RFK Jr would have to have the stable support of around 10 percent of the electorate.
The other three keys which will “decide the election,” according to Lichtman, are domestic social unrest, foreign/military failure and foreign/military success by the incumbent administration.
Lichtman previously told Newsweek that, despite America’s involvement in the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, he is likely to decide that the foreign military failure key is false.
On August 6, Lichtman also warned that the “short term economy” key was now “shaky,” as a result of early August’s “very weak jobs report” and the resultant stock market skid. However, Lichtman said that the key had not yet turned against the Democrats.
“The big message is ignore the polls, ignore the pundits,” Lichtman added. “Don’t follow the herd of the media, but look to how American presidential elections really work as gauged by the keys to the White House.”
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the ruling party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.
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