Vice President Kamala Harris is eroding the belief that former President Donald Trump can win the 2024 election.
Harris, who became the Democratic nominee just three weeks ago, has mounted a campaign that’s not only put her party in the lead, but has also shaken the confidence of which Americans had previously expected Trump to win, regardless of who they personally wanted to see in the White House.
The share of registered voters who think Trump will win in November has fallen 10 points, from 58 percent to 48 percent, in less than a month, according to Marist College polls conducted between July 9 through 10 and between August 1 through 4. Only 40 percent of voters thought President Joe Biden could win the election last month before he stepped down as the Democratic nominee, but now, 51 percent believe Harris will win.
The pollsters asked respondents to offer their predictions “regardless of whom you support.”
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign via email for comment.
The shift in 2024 expectations is largely driven by a boost in Democratic enthusiasm. Harris’ campaign has motivated her party, with more Democratic confidence that the vice president could prevail over Trump in just 83 days.
In July, only 73 percent of Democratic voters believed Biden could win. Earlier this month, 91 percent said they think Harris would. At the same time, the percentage of Democratic voters who believe Trump could take back the White House fell from 24 percent to 6 percent.
Republicans remain confident that Trump could win in November, with only 6 percent saying Biden or Harris were more likely to win. But independents are slowly changing their minds as well. In July, only 39 percent believed Biden could win reelection. In August, more than half, 52 percent said the same of Harris. Confidence that Trump could declare victory in November fell from 58 percent to 44 percent among independents between July and August.
Voters across geographical regions are less confident that Trump will win with Harris on the ticket.
In July, the majority of voters in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West said they thought Trump would win. Those results were the same for voters living in big cities, small cities, suburban areas, small towns and rural areas.
In August, however, voters in the South or those living in suburban or rural areas were the only ones among whom more than half still thought Trump would prevail. And even in those areas, confidence that Trump could win has fallen.
The percent of rural voters who now think the Democratic candidate will win in November has gone up to 38 percent from last month’s 31 percent, while the share of rural voters who think Trump will win has fallen from 68 percent to 55 percent. Support for Trump has also fallen among rural Americans, dropping from 67 percent to 61 percent. Biden only had 32 percent of the rural vote, compared to Harris’ 39 percent.
Overall, the surveys showed Harris with a larger advantage over Trump than the one Biden had. Harris leads with 51 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent. In July, 50 percent of voters said they would back Biden on the ticket, compared to 48 percent who said they’d support Trump.
The July poll surveyed 1,309 adults and had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points. The August poll surveyed 1,613 adults and had a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.
