Topline
Polls consistently show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee—with the latest Monmouth University survey showing Harris up five points, the third poll this week that found she would beat Trump if the election were held today.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at a rally in Las Vegas on Saturday, Aug. … [+]
Key Facts
Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled by Monmouth University in a survey released Wednesday said they will definitely or probably vote for Harris in November, compared to 43% who said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump.
An Economist/YouGov poll taken Aug. 11-13 also found 46% of registered voters would cast their ballots for Harris, while 44% would vote for Trump in a five-way race with third-party candidates on the ballot.
The vice president leads Trump 47% to 44% in Morning Consult’s latest poll released Monday, with 4% of registered voters surveyed selecting “someone else” and 4% saying they don’t know—the fourth week in a row Morning Consult’s weekly poll has shown Trump trailing Harris.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last Thursday found Harris leads 42% to 37% when voters are allowed to say they don’t know who they’ll vote for, a shift from Harris’ 37%-34% lead in late July—but the lead shifts to just 49%-47% in Harris’ favor when voters who are unsure are pressured to answer.
Harris built a three-point lead over Trump in an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released last Tuesday, polling 48% to 45% over Trump, though with a margin of error of 3.3 points, Trump remains in striking distance, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falls well behind at 5%.
Harris also leads Trump by one point nationally in a CBS News poll released Aug. 4, in part because younger and Black voters said they’re more likely to vote and women indicated they believe Harris would favor their interests more (margin of error 2.1 points).
Trump leads Harris in at least eight other polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy.
Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 Wall Street Journal poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.
Big Number
1.1. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.9-point lead.
Surprising Fact
The Monmouth University poll found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Cook Political Report survey released Wednesday. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied with him in Georgia and is trailing Trump by three points in Nevada, the Cook poll found.
Contra
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call that concluded last week. The following day, Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats hold their convention next week, Aug. 19-22, in Chicago.
Further Reading
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris (Forbes)
2022 midterms, 2024 presidential campaign, the January 6 House committee investigation, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, the 2023 State of the Union Address, former President Donald Trump’s federal election interference and classified documents cases and his Manhattan hush money case. Dorn graduated in 2012 from the University of Dayton with a degree in journalism. Prior to joining Forbes, she covered New York City and state politics for the New York Post and City and State magazine. Follow her for updates and analysis on the 2024 presidential race, key Senate and House races and developments in Congress and at the White House.
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