Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris’ entrance into the presidential race has nearly doubled enthusiasm among Democratic voters and cut the share of “double haters” who dislike both candidates in half, according to a new survey that could help explain why Harris has erased former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in most polls.
Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally in Las Vegas on Saturday, August 10, 2024. (Melina Mara/The … [+]
Key Facts
Democratic enthusiasm about the 2024 election has jumped from 46% in June, before Biden dropped out, to 85%, while enthusiasm among independents has also increased from 34% to 53%, according to an Aug. 8-12 Monmouth University poll of 801 registered voters (margin of error 4) released Wednesday.
Meanwhile, enthusiasm about the election among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
More Democratic voters (92%) are enthusiastic about Harris as their nominee than Republicans are about Trump (84%)—a significant shift from February, when 80% of Republicans were enthusiastic about Trump and 62% of Democrats were enthusiastic about Biden.
The share of so-called “double haters” who don’t have a favorable opinion of either candidate has declined from 17% when it comes to Biden and Trump to 8% when it comes to Harris and Trump—while 53% of voters who dislike both Biden and Trump say they’ll vote for Harris.
In another sign of enhanced enthusiasm for Harris, voter registration among Democrats in the crucial swing states of North Carolina and Pennsylvania outpaced registration among Republican voters in the three weeks after Harris’ entrance into the race, after Republicans held the advantage every week since February in North Carolina and in all but five weeks in Pennsylvania, a New York Times analysis found.
Big Number
48%. That’s the share of registered voters who said they will definitely or probably vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November, compared to 43% who said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump, according to Monmouth.
Crucial Quote
“This is clearly a different ballgame,” Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said in a press release about the poll from the organization. “The nominee change has raised the ceiling for potential Democratic support in the presidential contest by a small but crucial amount, at least for now.”
Key Background
Harris has inched ahead of Trump in polling averages after surveys taken before she entered the race consistently showed Trump beating Biden. She now leads Trump by 2.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average and by 1.1 points in Real Clear Politics’ average. Harris has also pulled ahead of Trump in most swing states, according to a poll released Wednesday from Cook Political Report that found her tied or leading in six of the seven battlegrounds, with the exception of Nevada.
Further Reading
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Surges Ahead Of Trump In Nearly Every Battleground (Forbes)
What To Know About The Democratic National Convention: Obama, Clintons, Biden Will Speak (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Expands Lead In Latest Survey (Forbes)
2022 midterms, 2024 presidential campaign, the January 6 House committee investigation, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, the 2023 State of the Union Address, former President Donald Trump’s federal election interference and classified documents cases and his Manhattan hush money case. Dorn graduated in 2012 from the University of Dayton with a degree in journalism. Prior to joining Forbes, she covered New York City and state politics for the New York Post and City and State magazine. Follow her for updates and analysis on the 2024 presidential race, key Senate and House races and developments in Congress and at the White House.
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