New polling from conservative polling company Rasmussen Reports shows Republican candidates trailing Democrats in pivotal U.S. Senate races in Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Democrats control the Senate by a 51-49 seat margin, including four independent senators who caucus or align with the party.
With the GOP widely expected to flip the West Virginia seat held by outgoing independent Senator Joe Manchin—giving Republicans an estimated 50 seats—the results of the presidential election Donald Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, as well as the outcome of these key Senate races may be the deciding factors for how the next Congress operates.
Each of the Republicans in the contested Senate races in Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania have been endorsed by Trump.
In addition to Rasmussen Reports, a Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group/BSG Swing State Project survey shows that Democratic Senate hopefuls running in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania have increased their vote share over their Republican challengers compared with a previous survey that was released in May.
Also, a new poll released on Monday by the Independent Center found that Democrats are favored in three crucial Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Arizona
Of the four races, according to Rasmussen Reports, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego has the biggest polling lead with a 48 to 40 percent advantage over Republican challenger Kari Lake.
In the survey of 1,187 likely Arizona voters, 6 percent said they will vote for “someone else” while another 6 percent said they are still “not sure” who they will vote for in November.
Newsweek emailed the Gallego and Lake campaigns Sunday afternoon for comment.
Ohio
Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 47 to 42 percent polling lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, according to Rasmussen Reports.
In the survey of 1,267 Ohioans, 3 percent said they’ll vote for “someone else” and 8 percent still said they’re “not sure.”
When reached by Newsweek for comment via email Sunday afternoon, Moreno spokeswoman Reagan McCarthy said, “Sherrod Brown votes with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris almost 100% of the time and has enabled the wreckage that this administration has unleashed on our economy, southern border, and standing on the world stage. In November, Ohioans will reject his disastrous, radical record and send an outsider to the United States Senate.”
Newsweek emailed the Brown campaign Sunday afternoon for comment.
Pennsylvania
Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 46 to 43 percent in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll.
The survey or 1,312 Pennsylvanians revealed that 5 percent of likely voters will vote for “someone else,” while 6 percent are still undecided.
Newsweek emailed the Casey and McCormick campaigns Sunday afternoon for comment.
Michigan
Michigan Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin leads by the slimmest of margins among Rasmussen Reports’ recent polling, holding a 45 to 43 percent edge over former Republican Representative Mike Rogers.
Of the 1,093 Michigan natives surveyed, 3 percent say they’ll vote for “someone else,” and 9 percent are unsure of who they will vote for in November.
Newsweek emailed the Slotkin and Rogers campaigns Sunday afternoon for comment.
Update: 8/18/2024, 1:30 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with a quote from a spokesperson for Bernie Moreno.
