Donald Trump got some good news from a national poll released on Friday after recent polling has largely shown bad news for the former president.
The Democratic presidential ticket has seen a significant reversal in the polls since President Joe Biden made the decision to step aside from the race on July 21 and endorse his vice president, Kamala Harris. Now formally the Democrats‘ nominee, Harris has surged in the polls—leading Trump in many national and some swing state polling, whereas Biden was generally lagging behind.
Trump has been dismissive of the polling, saying last week that he’s “leading by a lot.” In a news conference on Thursday, he also pointed to 2016, when many polls showed him trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump ultimately notched a narrow victor in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
The New Poll
Polling by RMG Research for Napolitan Institute showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris nationally. Trump was supported by 46 percent of likely voters and Harris had the backing of 45 percent.
The survey, which was carried out from August 12 to 14, included 2,708 likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
A similar survey by RMG and Napolitan from the previous week showed a tied race. In that poll, Harris and Trump both had the support of 49 percent of likely voters. The combined polling data underscores that the race remains close despite the recent surge in support and enthusiasm the Harris campaign has received.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email on Friday.
What Do Polling Averages Show?
Most recent polling has shown Harris ahead. This is reflected in leading polling averages, as well. The current polling average by FiveThirtyEight, an ABC News site, has Harris up by about 2.7 points. The vice president is at 46.3 percent to Trump’s 43.6 percent.
Silver Bulletin, a polling analysis site from FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, who left ABC last year, shows Harris up by 2.8 percent. Silver’s polling average shows Harris with 46.9 percent support and Trump with 44.1 percent.
Electoral College Will Make Difference
While a lead in national polls is preferable for a presidential candidate, it does not necessarily reflect the candidates’ chances of winning the presidency. Because of the Electoral College, where each state is awarded a certain number of electoral votes based on population, a select number of battleground states have an outsized impact on the election.
Trump won the 2016 election despite Clinton winning the national popular vote. The former president managed this by securing victory in a slate of pivotal swing states by narrow margins. Polling averages suggest a close race in these critical battlegrounds this year, but Harris appears to be leading in several.
