Former President Donald Trump on Friday received a new polling average with Vice President Kamala Harris, which shows that he’s trailing behind her.
According to ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight polling on Friday, Harris has the support of 45 percent of voters, while the former president garnered 43.5 percent support. While Harris’ 1.5 point lead is significantly better than how President Joe Biden performed against Trump, as Biden was trailing by more than 3 points nationally on the day he stepped down from the 2024 race on July 21, it is still considered a statistical tie between Trump and Harris.
According to ABC News, FiveThirtyEight adjusts polls that were conducted among registered voters or all adults toward the results of likely voter polls, adding that this adjustment is made due to the “fact that not all adults or even all registered voters will vote in the election, and the types of people who vote differ from nonvoters in predictable ways.”
“Without this adjustment, Harris and Trump would be tied at 44.0 percent nationally (based on polls conducted since July 22 and released by Aug. 1),” ABC News said. “But Harris’s margin is about 0.2 points higher in likely voter polls than in registered voter polls and about 0.6 points higher in likely voter polls than in polls of all adults. Controlling for this alone increases our estimate of Harris’s margin by 0.5 points.”
As of Saturday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight continues to show Harris in the lead with 1.5 points.
Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s and Harris’ campaign via email for comment.
This comes after Trump became the Republican presidential nominee last month at the Republican National Convention (RNC) as he was expected to face off between Biden. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll, following the assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 as well as the RNC that took place the following week, Trump’s favorability rating among Americans rose, while a majority of Americans wanted Biden to drop out of the race.
However, since Biden stepped down from the race and endorsed Harris, the former president faces new challenges.
Since launching her campaign two weeks ago, Harris has seen largely positive poll results. Overall, the polls indicate she has closed the gap on Trump compared to when Biden was on the ticket.
According to aggregation website Race to the WH (White House), which collated 128 national polls, Harris is at 47 percent, compared to the former president’s 46.9 percent as of Friday. Trump had been leading until July 30 when the Democratic candidate surpassed him in the polling average for the first time this year.
In addition, RMG Research is the latest pollster to find Harris leading Trump in the national popular vote. The firm released a survey on Friday showing her with a 5-point lead (47 to 42 percent) over the former president. The poll was conducted among 3,000 registered voters from July 29 to 31.
However, according to election analyst and statistician Nate Silver, while Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a greater chance of winning the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population.
A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
Silver’s model shows that Trump has a 54.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris’ chances stand at 44.6 percent. In the popular vote, Harris has a 53.5 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 46.5 percent chance.
The model also showed Harris as a slight favorite to win Michigan, giving her about a 54 percent chance to carry the state, while Trump had about a 46 percent chance. Wisconsin, another crucial battleground, was tied, with each candidate having a 50 percent chance of carrying it in November.
It gave Trump a narrow edge in Pennsylvania where the former president had about a 53 percent chance of winning; Harris had a 47 percent chance of winning it. Trump held more significant leads in other swing states Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
