Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris leads or is tied with Trump in all but one battleground state, according to a new Cook Political Report survey—the latest to show she has turned around faltering Democratic numbers in the crucial swing states since she replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the party’s ticket.
US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the American Federation of Teachers’ … [+]
Key Facts
Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump by one point, 49% to 48% with 3% of voters undecided, in a head-to-head matchup, according to Cook’s survey of 2,867 likely voters conducted July 26-Aug. 2, taking over Trump’s three-point lead over Biden there in a Cook poll from May.
Michigan: Harris also leads Trump here by three points, 49% to 46% with 5% of voters undecided; Trump led by two points here in May.
Wisconsin: Harris would beat Trump here by three points, 49% to 46% with 5% of voters undecided, if the election were held today, after Trump was tied with Biden there in May.
Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied here (48% to 48% with 4% undecided); Trump was up three points in the state in May.
Arizona: Harris is up by two points (48% to 46% with 6% undecided), following Trump’s one-point lead in May.
North Carolina: Harris would win the state by one point (48% to 47% with 6% undecided), a six-point swing from Trump’s seven-point lead in May.
Nevada: This is the only state where Trump has an advantage (three points), a six-point decline from his nine-point lead in May.
The Cook poll comes days after a New York Times/Siena poll also found Harris ahead of Trump by four points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found she would also beat him in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, but Trump would win in North Carolina.
Big Number
One. That’s the overall number of points Harris leads by in the seven battleground states, according to the Cook survey.
Tangent
National polls taken since Biden dropped out of the race have shown Harris cutting into Trump’s lead over Biden, and now barely leading overall, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)
2022 midterms, 2024 presidential campaign, the January 6 House committee investigation, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, the 2023 State of the Union Address, former President Donald Trump’s federal election interference and classified documents cases and his Manhattan hush money case. Dorn graduated in 2012 from the University of Dayton with a degree in journalism. Prior to joining Forbes, she covered New York City and state politics for the New York Post and City and State magazine. Follow her for updates and analysis on the 2024 presidential race, key Senate and House races and developments in Congress and at the White House.
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