Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time on Thursday tied former President Donald Trump in early election betting odds, according to betting site Polymarket, as polls show Harris gaining ground in critical swing states, with another betting site putting her well ahead of Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris was tied with former President Donald Trump in betting odds site … [+]
Key Facts
Polymarket showed Harris and Trump tied Thursday morning for the first time since Harris launched her presidential campaign, though Trump has since regained a narrow lead.
Polymarket lets betters purchase shares for the candidate they believe will win, giving them the option of cashing out if the value of those shares rise or waiting until the results of the election for a potentially larger payout.
As of Thursday morning, Trump has a narrow lead, at 50 cents, over 48.9 cents for Harris, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trailing far behind at 0.4 cents.
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Tangent
Harris took her first lead over Trump on rival betting platform Predictit last week, and has since taken a commanding lead over Trump there. Like Polymarket, bettors who place wagers on candidates using Predictit are given monetary values for each option priced between 1 and 99 cents (Harris was trading at 56 cents to Trump’s 47 cents on Thursday, with Kennedy at 2 cents).
How Does Harris Poll Against Trump?
Less than a month after announcing her candidacy, Harris has climbed in polling against the former president, making up lost ground after polls showed Biden trailing well behind Trump in the wake of his disastrous debate performance in June. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released this week showed her leading Trump 48% to 45% (margin of error of 3.3 points), while a Morning Consult poll found her up 48% to 44% (1 point margin of error). Harris has also cut into Trump’s lead in key battleground states with just under two months until the election, with Morning Consult’s poll showing Harris leading Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, though other polls have indicated the race in those states remain a toss-up. A Fox News poll released last week found Trump and Harris tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Trump ahead by one point in Wisconsin and two points in Georgia.
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