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Harris Vaults Past Trump As The Bookies’ Favorite To Win Presidential Election

Forbes Business Breaking Harris Vaults Past Trump As The Bookies’ Favorite To Win Presidential Election Siladitya Ray Forbes Staff Siladitya Ray is a New Delhi-based Forbes news team reporter. Following Aug 9, 2024, 04:50am EDT Updated Aug 9, 2024, 06:57am EDT Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline Vice President Kamala Harris
byLaura Mitchellx
9 August 2024
3 minute read
Harris Vaults Past Trump As The Bookies’ Favorite To Win Presidential Election
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Harris Vaults Past Trump As The Bookies’ Favorite To Win Presidential Election

Siladitya Ray

Forbes Staff

Siladitya Ray is a New Delhi-based Forbes news team reporter.

Following

Updated Aug 9, 2024, 06:57am EDT

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has now emerged as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election, highlighting her campaign’s momentum as she rapidly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead in the betting markets over the past two weeks.

Key Facts

Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket predict the Democratic candidate now has a slight edge, with a 49% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 48%.

This is a major shift from just two weeks ago, when the bookmakers believed Trump had a 64% chance compared to Harris’ 29%.

Polymarket also predicts Harris now has a 71% chance of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump’s 27%.

Bookmakers on the New Zealand-based PredictIt give Harris even stronger victory odds of 57 cents per share (roughly equating to a 57% chance) compared to 45 cents per share for Trump.

While Harris jumped ahead of Trump on the PredictIt market at the start of the month, her selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as running mate appears to have boosted her lead from just two points to more than 10.

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News Peg

According to the tracker Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from four separate betting markets, Harris now has a 50.9% chance of winning in November compared to Trump’s 47.1%. This is a massive swing in Harris’ favor, as just two weeks ago it gave the former president a more than 30-point lead over his opponent. Harris’ numbers have been climbing as the Democratic party has coalesced around her as its nominee after President Biden dropped out.

Tangent

The betting market’s sentiments about the vice president’s momentum have also been reflected in recent polling numbers, with the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist survey giving Harris a three-point national lead over Trump, while a Morning Consult poll gave her a four-point lead.

Further Reading

Harris Ties Trump On Election Betting Odds Site For First Time (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Widens Lead In Latest Surveys (Forbes)

Betting Markets Swing Towards Harris Being Democratic Nominee—As Pushback Against Biden Grows (Forbes)

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Siladitya Ray

Siladitya Ray

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Laura Mitchellx
Hello, I'm Laura Mitchell, a business writer focused on delivering insights into the financial world. My expertise lies in market trends, economic policies, and corporate strategies. I have a passion for demystifying the complexities of the business world and helping my readers make informed decisions.
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