Former President Donald Trump‘s running mate, Republican Ohio Senator JD Vance, may drag down his 2024 campaign, according to Florida pollster Kevin Wagner.
“Vance’s approval ratings are significantly trailing President Trump’s,” Wagner, the co-director of Florida Atlantic University’s Public Opinion Research Lab, said Tuesday. “It’s early, but instead of lifting the ticket, the selection of Vance as his vice president may be a drag on Trump’s reelection chances.”
His comments come in response to the lab’s latest poll, which found Vance with a polarized favorability rating among all voters.
Nearly 45 percent of voters find Vance “strongly” or “somewhat” unfavorable, while 41 percent see him as “strongly” or “somewhat” favorable. Voters are equally divided about Trump, with 50 percent viewing him as unfavorable and 49 percent viewing him as favorable, but more voters think Trump is “strongly” favorable, 33 percent, than the 23 percent who said had the same view about Vance.
“Vance’s launch has been uneven,” Wagner told Newsweek. “But it is probably a bit early to judge the impact by November. But, certainly the polling, including our own, suggest there are areas of concern.”
New reports suggest that a number of Republicans are second-guessing Trump’s decision to tap Vance as his running mate, wondering if the former president ignored his political advisers to pick a candidate that was favored by his son, Don Jr., and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
Trump announced earlier this month at the Republican National Convention that he had selected Vance as his VP. The Ohio Republican, who turns 40 on Friday, had been expected to help attract more young voters to the top of a GOP ticket that features a 78-year-old presidential candidate.
If Trump wins a second White House term, Vance would be the third-youngest vice presidential candidate in history, behind John C. Breckinridge, who was 36 when he was inaugurated, and Richard Nixon, who had just turned 40 before his inauguration. A Trump-Vance victory would also mean the inauguration of the oldest president in history. At 78, Trump would surpass President Joe Biden‘s record. Biden was also 78 at the time of his inauguration, but Trump would be 159 days older than Biden at the time of a 2025 inauguration.
“Generally, the VP pick is used to shore up a geographic area or part of the party base. Sometimes, the VP is used to appeal to a competitive demographic. It’s usually helpful when the VP can appeal to voters that are not otherwise being reached effectively by the top of the ticket,” Wagner said.
For the most part, Vance is largely popular among the same demographics that Trump does well with. He earns high marks with white non-college educated voters, with more than 48 percent saying they have a favorable view of Vance, and Trump 2020 voters, of whom more than 76 percent said the same.
Trump even did better than Vance among voters under 50, with nearly 57 percent describing Trump as favorable, compared to only 43 percent for Vance. The former president was also more popular among independent voters than his running mate, with 43 percent seeing Trump in a positive light, compared to 35 percent for Vance.
The optimism about a Trump-Vance ticket has recently become muddied by President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Harris as the Democratic nominee instead. The emergence of 59-year-old presidential candidate has shifted the focus of the election and a string of controversial remarks has put Vance on the defensive.
His first week as the Republican VP nominee was dominated by bipartisan criticisms over resurfaced comments where he referred to Harris, among other Democrats, as “childless cat ladies,” a quip that many warned would not play well with female voters.
Harris is already polling better than Trump among women. The new FAU survey shows the Democrat with a seven-point advantage over the former president among that demographic. The poll found Trump and Harris in a dead heat overall, tied at 46 percent. Harris also has a strong lead among Black and Hispanic voters, polling ahead of Trump by 45 points 17 points, respectively.
Harris also appeared to be more popular than both Republicans, with 53 percent of voters describing her as favorable and 44 percent viewing her as unfavorable.
Harris emergence as the next Democratic nominee has also changed the emotions of many voters.
While once frustrated and angry about November’s election, 80 percent of Democratic voters now report being happy, compared with 61 percent of Republican voters who feel the same way. Only 20 percent of GOP voters said they felt positively about the shakeup on the top of the Democratic ticket, while more than half, 53 percent, reported negative feelings and 32 percent describing “fear” as the most prevalent emotion.
“As the data show, emotions play a pivotal role in shaping voter behavior and engagement,” said Carol Bishop Mills, co-director of the PolCom Lab. “The significant positive sentiment among Democrats and minority voters toward Harris’ candidacy reverses some feelings of frustration and disconnectedness with Biden’s candidacy, while the heightened negative emotions among Republicans highlight the polarized nature of the current political climate.”
Update 7/30/24, 3:29 p.m. ET: This story was updated with additional information.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
