Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, leads former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a battleground state he won twice in past elections, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Saturday.
The poll released by the Times and conducted by Siena College, which has previously earned a reputation for accuracy and transparency, shows Harris leading Trump in North Carolina 49 to 47 percent. The poll features results in four battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—with 2,670 likely voters surveyed between August 8 through 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Along with North Carolina, the poll found that Harris leads in Arizona with 50 percent versus Trump’s 45 percent. However, Trump continues to lead in Georgia with 50 percent and Harris at 46 percent. Trump also narrowly leads in Nevada with 48 percent versus the vice president’s 47 percent.
However, Saturday’s poll shows a shift in North Carolina as the Tar Heel State was previously thought impossible for Democrats to win after strong polling performances for Trump throughout the year. The state has historically favored Republican candidates as Trump previously won in 2016 and then again in 2020. The last time Democrats won the state was 2008 with former President Barack Obama‘s first election campaign.
In a press memo, Trump’s campaign condemned the polling, stating it represents how “wildly inaccurate” the 2020 election results between Trump and President Joe Biden is being used to “create a phony lead” for Harris.
“The latest Sun Belt swing state polls of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada conducted by the New York Times and Siena College are, once again, a perfect example of how wildly inaccurate recalled 2020 vote between President Trump and Joe Biden is being used to create a phony lead for Kamala Harris. Fortunately, they proved our case for us this week, because they actually got Georgia right,” Trump’s campaign said.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaigns via email for comment.
Battleground states will play a key role in determining the result of this year’s election due to the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Surveys from battleground states may be more telling than those of national polls.
In order for Harris to realistically win more than 100 electoral college votes than Trump, she would have to triumph in every battleground state, including those won by Trump in 2016 and 2020. Of all seven battleground states, North Carolina and its 16 Electoral College votes is the one Harris is the least likely to win.
Polymarket, an online platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events, gives Harris only a 39 percent chance of winning the state. That appears to be a reflection of the previous polls for North Carolina, which recently showed either Trump as slightly ahead or the contenders tied.
A YouGov Blue poll conducted among 802 registered voters from August 5 to 9 showed Harris and Trump tied at 46 percent. Meanwhile, a Trafalgar Group poll conducted among 1,082 likely voters from August 6 to 8 showed Trump with 49 percent to Harris’ 45 percent.
However, the Democratic presidential ticket has seen a dramatic reversal in the polls since Biden made the unprecedented decision to drop out of the race on July 21 and endorse his vice president. Harris has surged in the polls—leading Trump in national and swing state polling averages whereas Biden was generally behind.
David B. Cohen, professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio, previously told Newsweek that the Harris campaign is looking to recapture the coalition that gave Obama in his first run for president.
“If Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, the final electoral results will look much more like 2008 than 2020, when Barack Obama expanded the map for Democrats and won an easy electoral victory. Based on rally crowd sizes, Harris seems to be approaching Obama-levels of enthusiasm,” he said. “It’s hard to say at this point whether Harris will actually win North Carolina; however, the fact that polling shows the state as a toss-up is very good news for the Harris campaign. North Carolina is perhaps the biggest reach for Harris of the next-level battleground states, which also includes Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.”
This comes as Harris continues to make efforts to reach voters in the state as she recently held a rally in North Carolina on Friday days after Trump held one in the state on Wednesday.
