A new survey of Georgia voters suggests that the path to victory for Republicans in the presidential race involves mobilizing the 50 and up crowd.
Those typically high-propensity voters are breaking for Donald Trump, according to the latest survey from AARP, and they could potentially flip a state that the former president lost by fewer than 12,000 votes four years ago.
Overall, the race is tight: a head-to-head ballot shows Trump and Harris tied at 48%. When the options expand to include Robert Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, Trump then leads 48% to 46% overall.
But the race is seeing radical segmentation, with this poll showing that the older a voter is, the more likely they will support Trump.
Among voters under 35, Trump is down 11 points in a head-to-head and 9 points in a full field. With those aged 35 to 49, Trump is down by 4 points in either scenario.
But when voters old enough to be AARP members are segmented out of the larger poll, it’s a different dynamic altogether.
Among those 50 to 64 years of age, Trump leads by 4 points in both the full field and the binary battle.
And with those 65 and up, Trump dominates. He’s up by 13 points in the two-way ballot test, and a staggering 15 points (56% to 41%) when the larger field is factored in.
AARP believes that more seasoned voters will make the difference in this election.
“Georgia voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Vanessa Payne, the State Director of AARP Georgia.
“If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers.”
56% of those older voters expect to rely heavily on Social Security as a primary source of income, and Trump has promised to protect them as a candidate this cycle.
“FIGHT FOR AND PROTECT SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE WITH NO CUTS, INCLUDING NO CHANGES TO THE RETIREMENT AGE,” reads one all-caps plank of the party platform Trump allies got through with little resistance at this year’s Republican National Convention.
He also has lately posted on Truth Social that “SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY,” and has explained that would be an immediate priority if he takes office next year.
“People on Social Security are being killed, and one of the things I’m doing is no tax for seniors on Social Security, and I’ll get it done quickly,” he added during a recent Fox and Friends interview.
If there is one potential opening for Harris, it’s with those older Georgians who are taking care of other family members.
“Thirty-four percent of older voters identify as family caregivers, making up 17% of voters overall. Thirty-eight percent of voters ages 50-64 and 37% of both Democrats and women over 50 identify as family caregivers,” AARP notes, adding that 90% of them say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in November.
Among those motivated voters, Trump has a narrow lead: 1 point in a two-way ballot test, and 3 points in an expanded field.
The poll, conducted by the Republican Fabrizio-Ward shop and the Democratic Impact Research, canvassed 600 likely voters between July 24 and July 31, and included more granular looks at the older voters.
Pollsters included an oversample of 494 likely voters ages 50 and older, and a second oversample of 160 Black likely voters ages 50 and older.
