An old labor anthem posits, “There is power in a union.” But the question going into November is exactly how much unions in Pennsylvania hold.
Organized labor in the Keystone State may be backing the Democrat in the presidential election, but it’s entirely possible Vice President Kamala Harris may be singing the Rust Belt Blues on election night.
That’s what Emerson College‘s latest survey of Pennsylvania shows — strong support from union members and families doesn’t mean others are sold.
“Pennsylvania likely voters in unions break for Harris by 15 points, 57% to 42%, while those not in a union and without union members in the household break for Trump, 50% to 48%,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director. “Those with union members in the household break from Trump, 50% to 42%.”
Unions are not nearly as potent a political force in Pennsylvania as they once were.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports just under 13% of workers in the state belong to bargaining organizations — a far cry from the nearly 21% who belonged to unions in 1989, which is the historic peak of membership. So while unions ranging from the AFL-CIO to the United Auto Workers are for Team Harris, they may not have the power they did in previous cycles.
The polling also suggests Harris’ decision not to select a favorite-son running mate could be boosting Trump’s overall numbers.
Harris reportedly rejected Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro for various reasons, including that he wouldn’t be acceptable to the hard left of the party that takes what some critics call “ antisemitic” positions. This wasn’t lost on Jewish voters in the state, who said the “mask” had come off the party with hat episode.
Nearly one in six (16%) Trump voters say they approve of Shapiro’s job performance. While the conventional wisdom is the veep pick doesn’t move voters, a close election in the Keystone State going Trump’s way because Tim Walz was the Democratic pick would challenge that thinking.
And this number indicates that could happen.
One group giving Harris a chance to offset those Shapiro-Trump voters is people new to the process, unlikely voters who may escape polling models but prove more challenging to activate in November. Harris dominates Trump with those who did not vote in 2020, leading with them 61% to 31%.
Consistent with that strength with new voters, Harris leads 61% to 36% with the younger set, those voters under 40 years of age.
The race is tied at 49% among voters in their 40s, and Trump dominates with older voters. He’s up 57% to 40% with survey respondents in their 50s and 60s and 52% to 47% with those 70 and older.
Trump heads back Monday to Pennsylvania, offering remarks on the economy in York. His campaign notes Harris has supported fracking and says, “Pennsylvania is the third-largest fossil fuel producing state, but a Harris-Walz energy agenda would destroy Pennsylvania’s economy as we know it.”
As Trump and running mate J.D. Vance prioritize the state, it’s still an open question whether Republicans can flip a Senate seat this year.
Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick, 48% to 44%. Casey was at 48% in July’s poll, but McCormick has lost 3 points amid what appears to be a burgeoning group of ticket splitters.
“6% of Casey voters support Trump — compared to 1% of McCormick voters who support Harris,” Kimball said.
