Once described as the jewel in the crown of the Liberal Party, the state of Victoria has long been an electoral wasteland for the right-of-centre major party.
But that might be changing. It’s only one poll, but after nearly a decade in power the Labor government’s primary vote has plummeted according to Redbridge independent polling.
The major parties are now both traveling at 50-50 on a two party preferred vote for the first time since 2017.
While other states have seen Liberal oppositions tank at elections, no other state has been as consistently pro-Labor for as long as Victoria.
Other than one error-riddled four year term for the Coalition, the Labor Party has governed Victoria for the past quarter of a century.
Most recently that was under the leadership of Dan Andrews. Since his retirement Jacinta Allan has taken over the reins, only to find herself immersed in the CFMEU scandal and the fallout from the junked Commonwealth Games bid as minister she was responsible for.
But the shift is not all about that, rather, Victoria’s extraordinary debt burden and high inflation. It is all about incumbency at a time of economic uncertainty.
The poll result is a sure sign that looming elections are going to be difficult for most incumbents, not just in Victoria.
Victoria has squarely been in the Labor column for most of the past quarter-century – re-electing Premier Andrews in a ‘Danslide’. But the heyday of ALP power could be coming to an end
The fact the polls have narrowed without inverting says as much about the Victorian Liberal Party as it does about the incumbent Labor government.
It is hard to overstate the ineptness of Liberals in Victoria. From scandals to factional divisions, the state that gave the Liberals Robert Menzies is now a cultural and ideological Labor state.
And rather than seeking to challenge that, Victorian Liberals have turned on themselves, spending more time attacking one another than their opponents.
According to this latest poll ultimately the salvation for Allan and Labor might be preference flows.
Despite Labor’s primary vote falling into the lower 30s, the Labor government is still a chance of securing another four years in office when it heads to the polls two years from now.
It’s a theme voters right around the country know all too well. Federally Labor’s primary vote has dipped into the high 20s according to some recent polling, with Anthony Albanese still the favourite to win re-election only because of Green preferences.
It’s a counter-intuitive proposition: voters are concerned about their economic vulnerability during a cost of living crisis, but could indirectly return Labor to power with a more powerful parliamentary ally in the shape of the Greens, running on big spending principles.
A scenario many voters would say will only make a bad situation worse.
Yet that is what our electoral system favours. Preferences allow the Greens to, to a certain extent, dictate terms when incumbent Labor governments are on the nose but voters still have doubts about returning the Coalition to power.
Whichever way you choose to interpret the slide in Labor’s vote in Victoria at the state level, it will have implications for the Albanese government.
Since Jacinta Allan has taken over the reins, she has found herself immersed in the CFMEU scandal and the fallout from the junked Commonwealth Games bid as minister she was responsible for
Whichever way you choose to interpret the slide in Labor’s vote in Victoria at the state level, it will have implications for the Albanese government. Above, Mr Albanese and fiancée Jodie Haydon
For a start federal Labor will have to face Victorian voters before the state government does. That might mean state based anger is directed at the feds.
This is one of the reasons Albanese is considering holding off holding the federal poll until after the Queensland election. So Queenslanders can take out their rage at state Labor.
He doesn’t have that luxury in Victoria where the state poll isn’t due for two more years.
The Redbridge poll in Victoria, conducted between July 23 and August 1, also reveals Labor trailing the Coalition with migrant voters as well as amongst low income earners.
That is the profile of many key outer metropolitan marginal seats Peter Dutton is targeting right around the country, not just in and around Melbourne.
These voters are most affected by the tough economic times, alongside home owners struggling under rising inflation with the risk of further rate rises.
The Redbridge poll also reveals home owners are turning on Labor after the state government raised land taxes.
The odds remain in Labor’s favour, in Victoria and nationally. It is, after all, just one poll.
But the resentments and doubt about Labor are growing, and it’s hard to see that trend reversing in the context of an economy that continues to struggle.
