Anthony Albanese reshuffling his frontbench may be akin to shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.
While HMAS Labor isn’t guaranteed to sink, plenty of its senior ministers are contemplating grabbing life rafts and bailing on their political careers.
Longtime Labor hands, Indigenous Affairs minister Linda Burney and skills minister Brendan O’Connor, both announced their retirement on Thursday morning.
But there is also speculation that education minister Jason Clare could make it a triumvirate of cabinet ministers who pull the pin.
Such pre-election announcements would force major changes to Albo’s ministry, giving him the chance to also reshuffle the likes of Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles out of the home affairs and immigration portfolios, where they have presided over bungles and failures.
Meanwhile those looking to fight on and contest the next election are already hitting the campaign hustings, in sharp contrast to some who are not – a lead indicator of who is staying and who is going.
Western Sydney MPs Tony Burke and Ed Husic have started posting examples of their local community work on social media, not something either Cabinet minister has done in recent months.
Clare’s community presence remains visibly absent, adding to speculation that he might be a surprise departure at just 52 years of age.
The official Labor Party campaign spokesperson from the last election, Clare holds the seat of Blaxland once held by former PM Paul Keating.
Jason Clare’s community presence remains visibly absent, added to speculation that he might be a surprise departure at just 52 years of age (pictured with Anthony Albanese in 2023 at an early learning centre in Queanbeyan)
Long touted as a future Labor leader himself, Clare’s political career hasn’t met the lofty expectations many had for him.
Sources close to Clare say that if he does leave politics now it is because he sees himself as still young enough to embark on a second career outside of politics. Perhaps in the private sector.
Anthony Albanese, refreshed from a holiday in northern Australia, returns to contemplate both a possible reshuffle and the timing of an early election.
The reshuffle can only go ahead once he has a firm grasp on who wants to stay and go.
While demotions can also force political retirements, the PM wouldn’t want to reshuffle someone who plans to leave into an important portfolio proclaiming they are the right person for the job only to see them announce their retirement shortly afterwards.
Anthony Albanese announces that long-time Labor hands Brendan O’Connor and Linda Burney will quit politics
Jason Clare was the official Labor spokesperson at the last election – but there are signs he could be looking for an early exit. Similar rumours are circulating around Linda Burney
With one eye firmly fixed on the Reserve Bank decision on interest rates due on the first Tuesday of next month, Albo is also contemplating the timing of the next election. He won’t pull the trigger if he thinks the RBA will put rates up, either shortly before or during a campaign.
Daily Mail Australia has confirmed that Labor’s head office is conducting both targeted polling and focus group research, as it attempts to identify the issues electors are likely to cast their votes on and the standing of key marginal seats.
Seats won from the previous Coalition government in Western Australia are at greatest risk of returning to the conservative fold. What happens in the west may determine whether Labor can retain its majority or not.
The head office research is also seeking to identify the seats that Greens candidates are threatening to win off the Labor Party. Victorian MPs Peter Khalil and Josh Burns are considered to be in serious trouble. Seats in the inner city areas of Sydney and Brisbane may also be under threat.
Burns only narrowly staved off a Greens challenge at the last election in his seat of McNamara and Khalil has faced threatening protests and disruptions at his Wills electorate office from pro Palestinian activists. Khalil in particular has been busy campaigning in his local community.
The PM has been vocal in trying to link those protests to the activism of the Greens. Despite the animosity between Labor and the Greens, recent opinion polls suggest that the prospect of Labor becoming reliant on the support of the Greens to form government after the next election is growing.
