Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are dead even, and Josh Stein leads Mark Robinson by 10 points in a poll conducted Monday through Friday of last week and released Sunday in North Carolina.
While other polls have been mostly statistically tied or led by Trump since Super Tuesday, meaning within the margin of error, the sampling sponsored by a Democratic-backing source, Carolina Forward, and conducted by YouGov Blue is the first to put Harris and Trump at the same percentage (46%) from respondents. The poll measured 802 registered voters and has a +/- 3.9% margin of error.
For Stein, the Democratic attorney general has in most polls since the end of spring began to create a window of separation from the Republican lieutenant governor. Stein captured 46%, Robinson 36% and 13% remain undecided.
The 10 points is an outlier. The previous high was from Public Policy Polling, sponsored by Democrat-backing Clean and Prosperous America, on July 19-20 and had Stein up 6 points.
In opposites of a poll released Friday by the conservative-leaning John Locke Foundation, Democratic state Sen. Rachel Hunt leads Republican Hal Weatherman 40%-38% with 22% undecided in the lieutenant governor race; Democratic U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson leads Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop 42%-40% with 18% undecided for attorney general; Democrat Mo Green leads Republican Michele Morrow 42%-39% with 19% undecided for superintendent of public schools; and Democrat Jessica Holmes leads Republican Dave Boliek 41%-37% with 22% undecided for state auditor.
The poll did not sample for the secretary of state race, where Democrat Elaine Marshall is bidding to win and work with a sixth different governor since first elected in 1996. In nine other Council of State races, Democrats had leads in six, two were led by Republicans and one was even.
The 10 Council of State seats (four-year terms) are governor; lieutenant governor; attorney general; commissioners of agriculture and insurance; the secretaries of state and labor; auditor; treasurer; and superintendent of public instruction.
The poll frames the main topics question as, “How concerned are you about the following issues?” with answers to be very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned and not at all concerned.
Cost of living (75% very, 22% somewhat) totaled 97% as a concern, economy jobs (65% very, 29% somewhat) was at 94%, and health care costs (64% very, 30% somewhat) was at 94%. Crime (58% very, 31% somewhat) was next at 89%.
Immigration (52% very, 28% somewhat) hit 80%, a full step above protecting abortion rights (45% very, 25% somewhat) that totaled 70%.
In April, state Democratic Party Chairwoman Anderson Clayton said, “Abortion is going to be the No. 1 issue that we run on for people in North Carolina to make sure that folks know we’ve got to protect not only abortion but also contraception.”
Absentee-by-mail ballots are 25 days away from going out, early in-person voting is 66 days away, and Nov. 5 Election Day is 85 days away.
North Carolina has a handful of notable patterns in elections.
Democratic presidential candidates since Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 triumph have only won the state twice in the last 14 cycles – Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Barack Obama in 2008. Each failed to win the state four years later.
North Carolina has 16 electoral college votes and is considered one of seven key battleground states representing 93 electoral college votes. The others are Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (six).
Gov. Roy Cooper is finishing his second consecutive term, the limit by state law, capping 13 consecutive winning elections dating to November 1984. Since Daniel Lindsay Scott Russell’s 1897-1901 tenure, the governor’s office has had a Democrat every year sans Oliver Max Gardner (1929-33) of the Baptist Party, and Republicans James Holshouser (1973-77), Jim Martin (1985-93) and Pat McCrory (2013-16).
Unlike some states, lieutenant governors are not coupled with governors as a ticket. Yet, there’s been just three Republicans since Russell closed the 19th century – Robinson and Dan Forest the last 12 years, and Jim Gardner (1989-93) more than 30 years ago.
The last Democrat to win lieutenant governor was Walter Dalton in 2008.
James Carson (1974-75) is the only Republican since Robert Douglas (1900-01) to be attorney general. Sixteen different Democrats have held the position since the beginning of the 20th century.
