Polling ‘Nostradamus’ Issues Kamala Harris Update

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman has suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris is currently on track to win the 2024 presidential election.

Lichtman, regarded as a political “Nostradamus” due to his record of correctly calculating nine of the last 10 election outcomes, stopped short of making a final prediction but did say “a lot would have to go wrong” for Harris to lose in November.

Newsweek has reached out to Lichtman via email for comment.

His comments came as he issued an update on where his election prediction model – “The Keys to the White House” – currently stood during a livestream posted to his YouTube channel on Thursday.

The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the ruling party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.

As things currently stand, Lichtman said five of the above statements are false, whilst eight are true. According to his model, that means Harris is on course for victory in November.

The keys that were false were keys one, three, 10, 11, and 12.

Harris’ polling could imply the race is a lot closer than Lichtman has suggested. Though Lichtman himself has repeatedly appealed for the practice of using polls as election predictors to be eschewed.

In a 2020 interview with CTV News, he called for an end to the practice of “election horse race polling.”

“Polls are not predictors, they are snapshots,” he said. He also claimed the margin of error for polls is “vastly larger” than pollsters would have us believe.

Lichtman has yet to make a final prediction for this year’s election but has hinted he will by the end of next month’s Democratic National Convention.

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