Topline
Former President Donald Trump has a narrow edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in four of the five crucial swing states President Joe Biden won in 2020, according to new polls by Emerson College—results similar to national polling that shows Trump beating Harris, but by fewer points than he would Biden.
US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the American Federation of Teachers’ … [+]
Key Facts
Michigan: Trump leads Harris by one point here (46% to 45%), with 9% of voters undecided, according to an Emerson College survey of 800 registered voters (margin of error 3.4) conducted July 22-23—a slight decline from Trump’s three-point lead against Biden in a July 15-16 Emerson poll.
Wisconsin: Harris and Trump are tied here at 47%, with 5% undecided, according to Emerson’s poll of 845 registered voters (margin of error 3.3); Trump led Biden here by five points.
Georgia: Trump is up by two points in the state (48% to 46%), with 7% undecided, in an Emerson poll of 800 registered voters (margin of error 3.4), after leading Biden by six points in the group’s previous poll.
Arizona: Harris is down by five points (49% to 44%) among the 800 registered voters surveyed (margin of error 3.4), with 7% of voters undecided, while Trump led Biden here by seven points earlier this month.
Pennsylvania: Trump leads by two (48% to 46%) in the latest survey of 850 voters (margin of error 3.3), compared to his five-point lead over Biden.
What To Watch For
Several names on Harris’ reported shortlist for vice president could help her shore up votes in the crucial swing states. Voters are partial to possible contenders who currently represent their states, the Emerson poll found. In Arizona, 42% of Democratic voters prefer their senator, Mark Kelly, 57% of Democrats in Pennsylvania prefer Gov. Josh Shapiro, and 36% of Michigan Democrats surveyed prefer Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has said she wouldn’t accept an offer for the No. 2 spot. None of the possible picks Emerson asked about received more than about 20% support among Democrats in Wisconsin and Georgia, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in addition to Kelly, Shapiro and Whitmer.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race Sunday, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. By Monday, the majority of Biden’s delegates had pledged to support her, making it all but certain she officially becomes the Democratic nominee when they vote during the first week of August to formalize the ticket. Harris enters the race with a relatively low approval rating, below 40% in most polls, largely reflective of Biden’s, and has less than four months to familiarize voters with herself before the general election on Nov. 5.
Tangent
Trump leads Harris by three or fewer points in four national surveys taken since Sunday, but trails Harris by two points in a fifth poll.
Big Number
2.1. That’s how many points Trump leads Harris by nationally, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average. Biden trailed Trump by 3.1 points when he dropped out of the race Sunday, a 1.6-point polling bump for Trump since the debate.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)
2022 midterms, 2024 presidential campaign, the January 6 House committee investigation, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, the 2023 State of the Union Address, former President Donald Trump’s federal election interference and classified documents cases and his Manhattan hush money case. Dorn graduated in 2012 from the University of Dayton with a degree in journalism. Prior to joining Forbes, she covered New York City and state politics for the New York Post and City and State magazine. Follow her for updates and analysis on the 2024 presidential race, key Senate and House races and developments in Congress and at the White House.
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