Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has cut into former President Donald Trump’s advantage over President Joe Biden in the week since Biden dropped out of the race, according to polls—with the latest survey showing Harris leading Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

Key Facts

Harris leads Trump by one point, 47% to 46%, with 4% of voters selecting “someone else” and 4% undecided, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll taken July 26-28, the second week in a row the poll has shown her leading Trump.

Trump leads Harris by three points in a July 26-28 Harvard CAPS-Harris poll of 2,196 registered voters (margin of error 2.1) when they were given an option to choose “don’t know/unsure,” a four-point decline in Trump’s seven-point lead over Biden in a June Harvard CAPS-Harris poll; Trump leads Harris by four in a two-way matchup, consistent with his June polling lead over Biden.

Harris trails Trump 47%-49% in a Wall Street Journal poll, though with a margin of error of 3.1.

A HarrisX/Forbes online survey of over 3,000 registered voters (margin of error 1.8) released Friday found the vice president trailing Trump 45% to 47%, though with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, Trump’s lead narrows to one point (43% to 42% ), while Kennedy holds 9% of the vote, with 6% undecided.

When asked whether respondents have a favorable view on Harris, 44% said yes, compared to 44% who had a favorable view of Trump, 39% for Biden, 36% for Kennedy Jr., and 34% for Trump running mate JD Vance.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken July 26-27 found Harris’ favorability rating has increased to 43%, from 35% in the groups’ previous poll taken July 19-20, while Trump’s favorability rating stands at 36% and Biden’s is at 37%.

A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,142 voters conducted July 22-24 shows Trump up by one point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters and up two points, 48% to 46%, among registered voters.

Harris and Trump are tied at 42% among registered voters in a six-way matchup with third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%) on the ballot, according to the Times/Siena survey.

In addition to the to weekly Morning Consult polls, Harris is up 44% to 42% over Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted July 22-23.

Four other polls show Trump leading: he tops Harris by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey taken July 22-23; by two points, 47% to 45%, in another Morning Consult poll; by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll; and by three points, 44% to 41%, in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 21-23 that also found Kennedy with 5% support.

Polls consistently show Harris outperforms Biden—Biden trailed Trump by six points in polls by Morning Consult, CNN/SSRS, The Wall Street Journal and Times/Siena before he exited the race.


Surprising Fact

The New York Times/Siena poll found voters are more tuned into the race in the aftermath of the June 27 Biden-Trump debate. Some 64% percent of respondents now say they’re paying a lot of attention to the contest, compared to 48% prior to the debate.

How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

Trump leads Harris by five or fewer points in four of five battleground states, according to an Emerson College survey released Thursday that found them tied in Wisconsin. Harris performs better than Biden in all five states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, in addition to Wisconsin.

Tangent

Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than they were about Biden, the Times/Siena survey found, with nearly 80% of voters who lean Democrat saying they would like Harris to be the nominee, compared to 48% of Democrats who said the same about Biden three weeks ago. In a stark contrast with sentiment surrounding Biden’s mental fitness, 56% of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% for Biden. A 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found 87% of Americans agreed with Biden’s decision to end his campaign, and more Americans think the decision will help the Democratic Party (45%) than the Republican Party (29%). In addition to showing Trump up by one point over Harris, the 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found 87% of Americans agreed with Biden’s decision to end his campaign, and more Americans think the decision will help the Democratic Party (45%) than the Republican Party (29%). The 19th News survey also showed Americans are split on whether Harris’ gender and race will help or hurt her: 31% think being a woman will help her, compared to 33% who think it will hurt her and 34% who see no impact. Respondents were more optimistic that Harris being Black and Indian American will benefit her, with 32% seeing it as helpful compared to 24% seeing it as harmful—though 41% expected it to have no impact.

Big Number

1.9. That’s how many points Trump leads Harris by in Real Clear Politics’ polling average. Trump led Biden by 3.1 points when Biden dropped out of the race, a 1.6-point increase from June 27, the day of the debate, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average.

Contra

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to re-energize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon,” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting growing calls from within his own party to end his re-election bid in the wake of the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with all Democratic governors and the majority of Democrats in Congress backing her. She has effectively clinched the Democratic nomination as more than half of all delegates have announced plans to formally vote to nominate her—something the party is expected to do in the first week of August.

Further Reading

Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)

Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris (Forbes)