Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are suddenly in a neck-and-neck contest about 100 days before the election.

Key Facts

Harris trails Trump 47%-49% in a Wall Street Journal poll, though with a margin of error of 3.1, the two-way race could come down to the wire.

A HarrisX/Forbes online survey of over 3,000 registered voters (margin of error 1.8) released Friday found the vice president trailing behind Trump 45% to 47%, though when including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead narrows to one point (43% to 42% ), while Kennedy holds 9% of the vote, with 6% undecided.

When asked if respondents have a favorable view on Harris, 44% said yes, compared to 44% who had a favorable view of Trump, 39% for Biden, 36% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 34% for Trump running mate JD Vance.

In addition to showing Trump up by one point over Harris, the 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found 87% of Americans agreed with Biden’s decision to end his campaign, and more Americans think the decision will help the Democratic Party (45%) than the Republican Party (29%).

The 19th News survey also showed Americans are split on whether Harris’ gender and race will help or hurt her: 31% think being a woman will help her, compared to 33% who think it will hurt her and 34% who see no impact.

Respondents were more optimistic that Harris being Black and Indian American will benefit her, with 32% seeing it as helpful compared to 24% seeing it as harmful—though 41% expected it to have no impact.

A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,142 voters conducted July 22-24 shows Trump up by one point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters and up two points, 48% to 46%, among registered voters—the latest survey showing Harris making a dent in Trump’s lead over Biden, who trailed Trump by six points in the groups’ early July survey.

Harris and Trump are tied at 42% among registered voters in a six-way matchup with third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%) on the ballot, according to the Times/Siena survey.

Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than they were Biden, the Times/Siena survey found, with nearly 80% of voters who lean Democrat saying they would like Harris to be the nominee, compared to 48% of Democrats who said the same about Biden three weeks ago.

Two polls taken since Biden dropped out show Harris leading: Morning Consult’s weekly presidential race poll, conducted July 22-24 among 11,297 registered voters, shows her with 46% support, compared to Trump’s 45%, while she is up 44% to 42% over Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday.

Four other polls show Trump winning: he leads Harris by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey taken July 22-23; by two points, 47% to 45%, in another Morning Consult poll; by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll; and by three points, 44% to 41%, in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sunday-Tuesday that also found Kennedy with 5% support.

Polls consistently show Harris outperforms Biden—Ipsos and Reuters’ previous poll taken July 15-16 found Harris and Trump tied at 44%, while a July 1-2 poll found Trump led by one point—though it’s unclear how polls taken when Harris was still only a hypothetical candidate will differ from those taken after she became the likely nominee.

The CNN/SSRS survey and Morning Consult polls also found Harris performs better than Biden against Trump—Biden trailed Trump by six points in Morning Consult surveys taken before he exited the race and by six points in CNN/SSRS surveys taken in April and June.

In a stark contrast with sentiment surrounding Biden’s mental fitness, 56% of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% for Biden.


Surprising Fact

The New York Times/Siena poll found voters are more tuned into the race in the aftermath of the June 27 Biden-Trump debate. Some 64% percent of respondents now say they’re paying a lot of attention to the contest, compared to 48% prior to the debate.

How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

Trump leads Harris by five or fewer points in four of five battleground states, according to an Emerson College survey released Thursday that found them tied in Wisconsin. Harris performs better than Biden in all five states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, in addition to Wisconsin.

Tangent

Most polls taken prior to Biden ending his bid found the president and Harris performing roughly the same against Trump, who had slightly expanded his narrow lead over Biden in the wake of Biden’s disastrous June debate performance. A Forbes/HarrisX poll conducted July 19-21 showed Trump leading both Biden and Harris by six points, a two-point jump in his lead over Harris and a four-point increase in his lead over Biden since the groups’ previous poll conducted July 13-15. A Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted July 19-22 found Trump and Harris tied in a head-to-head matchup, and Harris trailing by two points in a six-way race with third-party candidates on the ballot. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week showed Trump leading Harris by three points and Biden by five. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 13-16 found Biden would lose to Trump 41% to 43%, while Harris would perform slightly worse, losing to Trump 39% to 44%.

Big Number

1.9. That’s how many points Trump leads Harris by in Real Clear Politics’ polling average, which includes the Morning Consult poll and nine others conducted before Biden dropped out. The average does not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday. Trump led Biden by 3.1 points as of Sunday, when Biden dropped out of the race, a 1.6-point increase from June 27, the day of the debate, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average.

Contra

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to re-energize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon,” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race Sunday after resisting growing calls from within his own party to end his re-election bid in the wake of the June 27 debate. Prior to dropping out, Biden trailed Trump by 3.1 points in the RealClearPolitics average, a 1.6-point jump since the debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with all Democratic governors and the majority of Democrats in Congress backing her. On Monday, she effectively clinched the Democratic nomination as more than half of all delegates have announced plans to formally vote to nominate her—something the party is expected to do in the first week of August. A NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 87% of respondents think Biden’s decision to drop out of the race was the right thing to do, while 41% of voters, including 65% of Democrats, think it increases the party’s chances of winning in November.

Further Reading

Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)

Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris (Forbes)