‘Unpredictability’ the Deadline buzzword with flurry of moves still to come
Mark Feinsand
We’re in the final stretch of this summer’s trade season, as clubs have until 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday to make their final deals until the offseason.
There has been plenty of action around the league since the Mariners dealt for Randy Arozarena on Thursday night: Jazz Chisholm Jr. was traded to the Yankees, Carlos Estévez went to the Phillies, Isaac Paredes moved to the Cubs and Zach Eflin is now a member of the Orioles’ rotation.
Those moves will help shape the pennant races, but there are many more notable names who figure to find themselves wearing new uniforms by Tuesday night.
“I think there is going to be a flurry of activity Monday and Tuesday – like, a lot,” a National League executive said. “Teams seem to be shopping at the top of the market, but when most of them don’t get that guy, they will pivot. There are so many teams that believe they are in it, it’s making for an exciting couple of days.”
Pitching will be in high demand over the next two days, with starters Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, Jack Flaherty, Tyler Anderson, Yusei Kikuchi, Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde and Cal Quantrill all drawing interest to varying degrees.
“I think there are still a lot of key names out there,” another NL executive said. “Once it’s more clear on what’s happening with them, it will heat up a little more. Particularly with some starters like Flaherty, Kikuchi, or Snell, once they’re off the market, teams may be more interested in perhaps the second-tier guys. There are a lot of teams still in the hunt that could look to bolster their rosters.”
Crochet has long been considered the biggest prize of the Deadline given his breakout season and two additional years of club control, but reports in the past week have suggested that the left-hander will require a new team to give him a contract extension to pitch into October. His plan all along has been to remain in a starting role through the end of the regular season.
“I think Crochet is going to get moved somehow, some way,” the first NL executive said. “He may not be the biggest name traded, but he’ll be the most interesting given his recent comments. How does he NOT pitch in the playoffs if he gets traded and his team qualifies?!?”
If Crochet isn’t the biggest name that will change teams by Tuesday night, who will be?
Flaherty was mentioned by multiple executives, as the Tigers are widely expected to deal the right-hander and his expiring contract.
The other name mentioned repeatedly was Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who has pitched extremely well (0.75 ERA, 30 strikeouts in 24 innings) in four starts since his return from the injured list on July 9.
Snell’s contract situation could make for some interesting trade talks, assuming that the surging Giants decide to move the left-hander. Snell has a $30 million player option for 2025, presenting a quandary for any acquiring club; if he pitches well the rest of the way, Snell would be likely to opt out, making him a rental. If he pitches poorly or gets injured, he would be more apt to exercise the option, saddling his new team with a sizeable deal for next season.
“Snell will be a fascinating guy to watch,” said an American League executive. “Similar to the [Carlos] Rodón situation a couple years ago now that Snell seems to be throwing the ball well.”
Executives we spoke with were split on whether Snell would be dealt this week, some citing the Giants’ weekend sweep against the Rockies, others viewing his contract status as a huge hurdle to any deal.
“That’s really dependent on a team that can afford it next year,” an NL exec said. “The asking price has to be a lot, assuming the Giants obviously budgeted for it next year. It would have to be a handful of prospects or a combo of prospects and one or two big leaguers.”
Among the trades that have already taken place, we’ve seen some contenders pay a hefty price in terms of prospects to bolster their roster for the stretch run. The Phillies dealt two quality young starters for Estévez, while the Padres traded three of their top prospects for reliever Jason Adam.
If the prices to acquire talent remain high, one AL executive believes this Deadline could be remembered for deals that ultimately lean in the sellers’ favor.
“I expect most buyers to look back with regret at the players they gave away,” the executive said.
“Prices are high, but I can see the market collapsing,” another AL exec said. “At some point the rising interest rates of rental players will stop the market.”
Unless the Blue Jays reverse course and decide to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr., there doesn’t appear to be any Juan Soto-type star set to move prior to the Deadline. But useful position players such as Luis Rengifo, Yandy Díaz, Lane Thomas, Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong are likely to change teams, strengthening contending rosters with two months left in the regular season.
“I don’t expect a ton of blockbuster moves,” an AL executive said. “I do think we will see a fair number of trades for role players on expiring deals.”
Ditto for bullpens around the league, with relievers such as Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, Michael Kopech, Luis García, Dylan Floro and Jalen Beeks among those being discussed.
Asked what we should expect in the next two days, an NL executive needed only one word: “Unpredictability.”
It’s true, we have no idea what to really expect between now and Tuesday evening aside from dozens of rumors and a lot of texts and phone calls between executives. But there could be a shift in the postseason landscape when the dust has settled.
