Updated Northern Lights Forecast: These States May Get Another Chance To See Aurora Borealis Tonight
Topline
Scientists predict a trail of solar eruptions may arrive to Earth Wednesday night, giving people in northern and midwestern U.S. states another chance to see the Northern Lights after Tuesday’s display was less strong than expected.
The aurora borealis in Maine.
Key Facts
Wednesday’s aurora has a Kp index of five, which means the lights will move further from the poles and appear brighter to observers, causing them to be “pleasing to look at” under the correct viewing conditions, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.
Strong G3 and moderate G2 geomagnetic storm watches were issued by NOAA until Thursday after multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—or eruptions of solar material—occurred over the weekend.
Two of those CMEs formed into what’s known as a “ Cannibal CME,” which happens when an CME is engulfed by a second, much faster CME, leading a massive cloud of plasma that can cause strong displays of the Northern Lights.
The Cannibal CME—which was caused by a series of solar flares—struck Earth on Tuesday, causing displays of lights in several continental U.S. states, but the aurora wasn’t as strong as scientists predicted because the CME’s magnetic field was facing the wrong direction, according to Spaceweather.com, a database ran by astronomer Tony Phillips.
NOAA expected Northern Lights activity to be the strongest on Tuesday after issuing a G3 storm watch, but this was later downgraded to a G1 storm Tuesday night, so the lights were only visible on camera and not to the naked eye.
However, aurora chasers may have a better shot at viewing the lights Wednesday night since there’s a G2 watch in effect, and the Cannibal CME was accompanied by a “ wagon-train” of other CMEs that’s expected to arrive to Earth between Wednesday and Thursday.
Where Will The Northern Lights Be Visible Tonight?
Though it’s difficult to predict where exactly the lights will be visible, NOAA offers a forecast with a potential view line (see below). U.S. states within the aurora’s view line include Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
Wednesday night’s view line.
What’s The Best Way To See The Northern Lights?
The lights are usually most active between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. EDT. For the best views of the Northern Lights, the agency advises traveling as close to the poles as possible, avoiding city lights and other light pollution, monitoring weather forecasts for prime viewing conditions and finding a position on a vantage point like a hilltop. Smoky skies due to wildfires in Canada and California may affect the views of some aurora chasers in the northern U.S.
What’s The Best Way To Photograph The Northern Lights?
Smartphone cameras are sensitive enough to pick up the aurora, even when it’s invisible to the naked eye. Visit Iceland, a tourist website for Iceland, where the lights are often visible, advises turning on night mode to best increase smartphone camera exposure.
Key Background
Very active sunspots NOAA dubbed as NOAA Active Region 13664 are the cause of the Northern Lights that have been popping up in the U.S. since May. These sunspots caused a G5 geomagnetic storm—which is the highest label storms can have—in May, leading to the strongest storm since the Halloween solar storms of 2003. Researchers believe a Cannibal CME was also the culprit behind May’s dazzling lights. A celestial event called Solar Cycle 25—the cycle the sun goes through around every 11 years—has been the cause of geomagnetic storms that have resulted in recent sightings of the Northern Lights. It began in 2019, and it’s estimated it will reach its peak—when solar activity will reach its maximum—between late 2024 and early 2026. It’s estimated it will peak with 115 sunspots, which are where geomagnetic storms originate. Although the maximum hasn’t happened yet, the sun’s activity has been busier than scientists anticipated, so it’s possible there will be even more geomagnetic storms leading up to the peak, though it’s difficult to predict exactly when these storms will occur.
