Presidential historian Allan Lichtman has issued a warning over the threat he believes former President Donald Trump would pose to American democracy.
At the recent Turning Point Action’s Believer’s Summit, Trump said: “Christians, get out and vote just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what? It will be fixed. It will be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.”
Lichtman, often referred to as the “Nostradamus” of presidential elections due to his success at predicting the results, likened the comments to Vladimir Putin‘s Russia and Kim Jong Un‘s Korea.
Although there is dispute over what precisely Trump meant by this statement, Lichtman suggested Trump’s words should be taken at face value.
“One of the grave mistakes good people have made throughout history is not taking would-be authoritarians at face value,” Lichtman said.
“That’s exactly how you lose your freedom. Because it’s not just the evil people who wreak havoc on the world, it’s the good people who, maybe unwittingly and with good intentions, simply do not do enough to stop them.”
When previously reached for comment asking for clarification on the former president’s statements, Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek over email, “President Trump was talking about uniting this country and bringing prosperity to every American, as opposed to the divisive political environment that has sowed so much division and even resulted in an assassination attempt.”
Lichtman made his remarks during a livestream posted to his YouTube channel on Tuesday.
The historian has made no secret of his feelings towards Trump in the past. He has previously said that Trump would be “slapped down” by Vice President Kamala Harris in a debate between the two.
He justified his damning verdict on the Republican nominee by saying that Trump’s recent comments should be considered “in context.”
“If this was an isolated incident… Trump never ever hinted before at authoritarianism, you might be able to discount it, but it is absolutely consistent with so many other things that Trump has said.”
“He said I’ll be a dictator on day one so I can drill, drill, drill, and build the wall,” Lichtman added.
This was a reference to a discussion between Trump and Fox News‘ Sean Hannity, in which the latter asked if Trump would ever “abuse power as retribution against anybody.”
“Except for day one,” replied the former president.
“Then he said, and this is on record, that in order to maintain power because the election was rigged against him we may need to suspend our constitution,” continued Lichtman.
“Once you suspend the constitution you then descend into authoritarian government.”
Lichtman appeared to be referring to a 2022 Truth Social post by the former president which seemed to promote baseless claims that he lost the 2020 election due to voter fraud.
“A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the constitution,” read the post.
“Our great ‘Founder’ did not want, and would not condone, False & Fraudulent Elections!”
Trump distanced himself from the statement following condemnation. A separate post two days later read: “The Fake News is actually trying to convince the American People that I said I wanted to ‘terminate’ the Constitution. This is simply more DISINFORMATION & LIES.”
“What I said was that when there is ‘MASSIVE & WIDESPREAD FRAUD & DECEPTION,’ as has been irrefutably proven in the 2020 Presidential Election, steps must be immediately taken to RIGHT THE WRONG,” Trump added. “Only FOOLS would disagree with that and accept STOLEN ELECTIONS. MAGA!”
The historian also labelled Trump “the biggest political polarizer and divider we’ve ever had in a president or presidential candidate.”
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman and the Trump campaign for comment via email outside of standard working hours.
Lichtman rose to prominence for his election prediction model – “The Keys to the White House,” which has successfully predicted nine of the last 10 presidential election outcomes.
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.
Lichtman has yet to make a formal prediction for November.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
