Historian Allan Lichtman, who rose to prominence for his impressive record predicting the outcome of most presidential elections since 1984, has revealed his thoughts on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Kamala Harris‘ choice for running mate
Walz was revealed as Harris’ pick for vice president on Tuesday, beating out other prominent frontrunners such as Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Harris will take on Donald Trump for the White House in November.
In a livestream posted to his YouTube channel Tuesday, Lichtman said that the qualifications for governing are an important consideration, as vice presidents may have to assume the presidency.
“That’s happened quite a number of times in our history, and you want someone with the qualifications to be president, and as compared to all the other possible contenders, Tim Walz actually had the best governing credentials,” the professor said.
“He was a multiple term U.S. representative from a swing district… he twice won the governorship for Minnesota… He has legislative experience, he has executive experience, he has military experience having served 24 years in the national guard, he was a teacher…” Lichtman continued.
” He’s very little known but his governing credentials are extremely strong.”
The historian has stressed previously that he does not believe the vice president has a notable effect on the election outcome, and he is yet to issue a formal prediction for November’s election.
Lichtman’s track record of accurately predicting nine of the past 10 presidential elections using his model, “The Keys to The White House,” earned him the title of the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections, after the French reputed seer of the Renaissance period.
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the ruling party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman for comment.
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