Historian Allan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections due to his impressive accuracy in predicting the winner, has voiced who he believes are the strongest candidates Vice President Kamala Harris could select as her running mate.
In a YouTube livestream on Thursday, Lichtman said, “I don’t think a VP pick turns the election, but a VP pick is incredibly important.”
“I think all of the names that have been vetted are qualified. In my view, it’s come down to two,” he added.
The presidential historian, who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the past 10 elections, then identified Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly as favorable choices.
In an interview with Newsweek on Friday, Lichtman said Shapiro was a “good choice.”
Nine vice presidents have ascended to the presidency following the death or resignation of their boss.
“Picking someone from a given state is no guarantee you’re going to win that state, but if you want to reach out to any particular state, Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election,” Lichtman explained in the Newsweek interview.
“Of all the swing states, it has the most electoral votes, and Democrats really can’t win without winning Pennsylvania. I’m not saying picking Josh Shapiro is going to win Pennsylvania. There’s no evidence to that effect, but if her objective is to try to pick someone who could help you to win a state, you would want to pick Pennsylvania,” Lichtman added.
Pennsylvania counts for 19 Electoral College votes and no Democratic candidate has won the election without the Keystone State since Harry Truman in 1948. Pennsylvania has voted Democrat in every election since 1992, save 2016, when Donald Trump beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign and Shapiro for comment.
Lichtman’s election prediction model is known as “The Keys to the White House,” and is made up of 13 true/false statements, or “keys.”
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the ruling party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.
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